France, Azerbaijan are on the brink of another diplomatic crisis Armenian lobby's long arm?

On November 16, the French Senate adopted a resolution providing sanctions against Azerbaijan. The decision came amid deteriorating French-Azerbaijan relations and mounting criticism of France. The relations first became tense during the active phase of the second Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which resulted in the liberation of territories by the former.

Unsurprisingly, the recent resolution triggered anti-French sentiments in Azerbaijan with several Azerbaijani parliament members demanding strict measures against France. One of the MPs, Ramin Mammadov, even proposed holding a hearing at the Azerbaijani Parliament regarding France's massacres against Algerians referring to events in Chad, Senegal, and Rwanda. As a logical continuation of criticism, the Parliament issued a statement condemning the French Senate and calling for assets belonging to French officials in Azerbaijan to be frozen and energy cooperation with the French companies, namely energy giant Total, to be reconsidered.

The Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan stated that the resolution was 'groundless and far from the truth. They said, “it would undermine the normalization of Armenian–Azerbaijani relations, and 'clearly demonstrates France's biased and one-sided political position.”

The subsequent escalation of French-Azerbaijan diplomatic tensions occurred in the wake of the recent deadly border clashes between Baku and Yerevan that erupted in September 2022, claiming more than 200 lives on both sides. The French authorities harshly condemned Azerbaijan, demanding its withdrawal to initial positions from newly gained strategic heights, albeit unsuccessfully. Also, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement that “France is exploring ways to support Armenia militarily against Azerbaijan’s further advancement,” made the fruitful dialogue with Azerbaijan more complicated.

Azerbaijan seems to be frustrated with France's attitude towards the long-term dispute with neighbouring Armenia while neglecting the grievances of ethnic Azerbaijanis being forcefully expelled from Karabakh. For many years France has been acting as one of the OSCE's Minsk Group co-chairs, tasked with encouraging a peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict. However, throughout these years, the Minsk Group has done little to address the main concerns of both warring parties.

In November 2020, the French Senate adopted the first resolution against Azerbaijan that urged the French authorities to recognize the breakaway Karabakh region with no visible results. Although the French government recognized the territory as an integral part of Azerbaijan under international law, the frequent criticism of Azerbaijan's counter-military operation in Karabakh made the bilateral relations more fraudulent.

Since the end of the second Karabakh war, Azerbaijan has pushed for the signing of a peace treaty with Armenia and full reconciliation, reiterating the idea of sustainable stability in the volatile South Caucasus region. However, until now, all negotiation formats and mediation efforts, including French President Emmanuel Macron's face-to-face meeting with President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Prague in October 2022, did not yield significant results.

Nevertheless, Azerbaijan simultaneously apprehends the fact that France does not possess a real tool of influence or pressure over the country as the anti-Azerbaijani resolution document adopted by the upper house of the French Parliament does not legally oblige the government to act. Moreover, the fact that the French Senate adopted the document, not the National Assembly, makes it less critical for Azerbaijan. According to Nathalie Goulet, a member of the French Senate, "this resolution was adopted under the influence of the strong Armenian lobby in France."

During the discussions in the Senate, Olivier Becht, a representative of the French Foreign Ministry, did not object to its adoption but also did not suggest that the government would follow its recommendations. On the other hand, it was significant to point out that a day before the resolution was adopted, the First Lady and Vice-President of Azerbaijan, Mehriban Aliyeva resigned from her role as “goodwill ambassador” to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) based in Paris. Some argued that it was a soft objection of the Azerbaijani authorities to the position of the organization chaired by a close ally of President Emmanuel Macron.

The powerful Armenian lobby based in France has long been challenging Azerbaijan’s efforts to establish more intensive diplomatic ties with France or push for its point of view through the French authorities regarding the Karabakh issue. After all, France harbours Western Europe's biggest Armenian diaspora with up to 600,000 members.

The situation worsened in the post-2020 war when conservative organizations of the Armenian lobby in France held numerous anti-Azerbaijani rallies in Paris, culminating in an organized brutal attack on the Azerbaijani Embassy in September 2022. Such a dramatic incident added more fuel to the deteriorating relations between France and Azerbaijan as the latter accused the French authorities of turning a blind eye to the breach of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.

Whereas relations with Azerbaijan become tenser with France, Iran, and Russia demonstrating mainly pro-Armenian position while urging for "final peace" between Armenia and Azerbaijan, 2022 slightly comes to an end. The peace talks held in Brussels, Sochi, and Prague in 2022 did not cause a breakthrough in negotiations, though the number of deadly escalations between the two neighbouring states dramatically increased in the post-war period.

It is unlikely that the current resolution against Azerbaijan will cause terminate or downgrade the diplomatic relations, as some in Baku believe that the French government will abstain from further escalation of tensions with Baku. Nevertheless, the general perception in Azerbaijan toward France will likely remain highly damaging while preventing France from obtaining a mediator role in the upcoming peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.