France without Le Pen: Who will lead the right-wing march? The revenge of the petty Macron

The conviction of the leader of the National Rally (RN) has become the loudest political scandal in France in recent times. However, will this court decision save the rapidly declining liberal Macronists?

A Macron-style vendetta

On March 31, Marine Le Pen, the main potential candidate from the far-right for the 2027 presidential elections, was sentenced to four years in prison, five years of disqualification from participating in elections, and a fine of 100,000 euros. Several Members of the European Parliament from the National Rally party were also found guilty. The court determined that the defendants caused the state a loss of 2.9 million euros by creating fake assistant salaries. Essentially, these public funds were funneled into the far-right party's coffers. Despite claims of "the rule of law," political life in the West regularly faces corruption and abuses of power. However, it is unlikely that representatives of the French political elite will actually end up behind bars.

Le Pen's punishment includes two years of probation and two years under electronic surveillance. The sentence will only take effect after all appeals have been considered, and this process could drag on for years.

The "political earthquake" was the fact that Le Pen has been stripped of her ability to run in the 2027 presidential elections. While she has not yet lost her parliamentary mandate, she will also be unable to run in early parliamentary elections.

The National Rally has stated that the sentence is a political order aimed at removing their rival. Is this a crisis of liberal democracy in the EU? Le Pen herself called the day "fateful for our democracy and our country." Member of Parliament Frédéric Falcon declared it a "coup d'état." However, soon after the court's decision, an alternative opinion emerged: the sentence may actually play into the hands of the far-right.

Electoral arithmetic with an unpredictable outcome

Marine Le Pen has repeatedly run in presidential elections but has lost every time in the second round. In terms of political technology, she has both strengths and weaknesses. Among the drawbacks are her age (56), at a time when the French electorate is increasingly focused on younger candidates. Additionally, she still faces the shadow of her controversial father, despite her efforts to distance herself from the radical past of the party.

According to an Ifop poll published just before the verdict, Le Pen could have received 34-37% of the votes in the first round of the 2027 elections.

After her exclusion from the race, Jordan Bardella — the temporary leader of the National Rally (RN) — has emerged as a front-runner. According to a Toluna Harris Interactive poll on March 31, he already leads with 35-36% of the votes. Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe is in second place with 23-25%, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon from France Insoumise is in third with 13%.

The problem for RN has always been the second round. Centrists typically mobilized both the liberal and left-wing electorate, forming a coalition "against the right." Previously, many left-wing voters preferred a liberal president over the far-right.

However, even a coalition of centrists and left-wingers may not guarantee a victory over Bardella now. The liberal camp has a reserve in the form of support from socialist Olivier Faure (5%), communist Fabien Roussel (4%), and eco-activist Marine Tondelier (4%).

But Bardella also has potential to expand his base. He could attract supporters of Éric Zemmour (5%), some voters from the Republicans (4%), and backers of the right-wing Gaullist party "Debout la France" (France Arise) led by Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (2%), who had already formed an alliance with RN in 2017.

The second round in 2027 is expected to be especially tense, with the gap between candidates potentially being just a few percentage points. In the past, Marine Le Pen has struggled to attract voters from the "adjacent" camps. In the 2017 election, she lost to Macron by more than 30%, and in 2022, by 18%.

Can Bardella better consolidate the right-wing vote? His youth, populist charisma, and refreshed image could play a decisive role. According to an Odoxa poll, 60% of RN supporters already prefer Bardella over Le Pen.

The veteran and the prospect of right-wing populism

29-year-old Jordan Bardella is far from a typical far-right figure in the classical sense. He has Italian and partly Algerian roots, which may irritate orthodox French nationalists. However, such a background allows him to more easily defend himself against accusations of racism, making him more acceptable to a broader range of voters.

He also advocates for the legalization of medical cannabis — a proposal that, in the context of rising drug crime and the trafficking of psychotropic substances in France, may seem controversial, but could attract younger voters for whom "weed" has become part of their culture. Bardella has also distanced himself from the anti-gay marriage stance previously promoted by Le Pen: "The country faces more pressing issues."

However, like all nationalists, Bardella focuses on issues of migration and French identity. His positions on these matters are even stricter than Le Pen's: since 2024, he has advocated for the abolition of automatic citizenship granted by birthright. He is also actively discussing environmental issues, linking them to patriotism and the upcoming waves of climate migration.

The green agenda could help the far-right gain traction in the electoral field traditionally held by the left and liberals, especially among young people — an area where Marine Le Pen has always faced difficulties. For Bardella, who is active on social media and more "modern," this is an open playing field.

He remains relatively cautious in his statements and symbolism, in contrast to many of his provocative colleagues on the right wing. Bardella did not support party members who were convicted for racist comments and refused to participate in the CPAC conference in the U.S. after an incident involving Steve Bannon, who made a gesture resembling the Nazi salute.

Islamophobia within the RN is now being presented under the guise of combating anti-Semitism. Bardella’s recent trip to Israel was yet another step in "cleaning up" the party's image, which until recently was directly associated with the anti-Semitism of Jean-Marie Le Pen's era.

Bardella is a political protégé of Marine Le Pen, whom he met in the Paris suburb of Saint-Denis when he was just 20. He calls her "the Marine" for her tough character. But today, Le Pen is in no hurry to cede leadership to him.

In an interview with TF1, she emphasized that she does not intend to withdraw from the presidential race and plans to appeal the verdict. When asked about Bardella, she responded skeptically: "Jordan is a huge asset to the movement... I hope we won't have to use this asset before it's necessary."

Bardella himself continues to avoid discussions about running for president, remaining loyal to the "Marineist" faction. Regarding the verdict, he stated: "Today, not only Marine Le Pen was unjustly condemned; French democracy has been killed." He also described the decision as "tyrannical arbitrariness by red judges." Nevertheless, he has no intention of initiating the resignation of Prime Minister Bayrou's government, which depends on RN's support in parliament.

Already this past weekend, Bardella called for a "peaceful mobilization" — rallies and petition drives in support of Le Pen.

Although the RN electorate is traditionally law-abiding, the judge in Le Pen's case has already faced threats and insults, which led to her being placed under police protection. Nationalist protests scheduled for the coming weekend will show how far the party's street support can go.

This mobilization may also serve as an unofficial start to Bardella's presidential campaign. On April 2, Emmanuel Macron confirmed Le Pen's right to appeal during a Cabinet meeting. The hearings could take place in the summer of 2026.

However, the situation is far from simple. If the appeals process drags on, the RN could find itself in a state of uncertainty, unable to definitively choose a candidate. And if the party backs Bardella but, at the last moment, Le Pen's appeal is accepted, it could lead to a clash between two competing right-wing candidates. An internal party split is a very possible scenario.

There are also doubts about the reaction from the ruling camp. Prime Minister François Bayrou has already expressed concern over where the RN electorate will go in the event of Le Pen’s final disqualification. Despite her radical rhetoric, Le Pen has controlled the party and kept potential radicalization in check — both on the streets and in parliament.

At the same time, the image of the "victim of the system" could garner additional sympathy and votes for the RN in the elections. It is also worth noting the potential difficulties for centrists in the 2027 presidential elections. After the victory of the "New Popular Front" in the last parliamentary elections, the Macronists ignored the left when forming the government. Even moderate socialists were "betrayed" — they were promised the cancellation of the pension reform in exchange for support, but ultimately were deceived.

Now, even within the left camp, there is disarray. The Socialist Party has rejected cooperation with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s "La France Insoumise," effectively dismantling the "New Popular Front." It’s also important not to overlook the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump on the French elections. The RN may try to leverage "Trumpism" to its advantage, but at the same time, anti-Trump rhetoric is gaining strength within the EU — and the outcome of such a connection is difficult to predict.

Much could change before 2027. But one thing is clear: the upcoming presidential elections will be extremely tense and unpredictable.