Georgia and Serbia under Western scrutiny Operation “Elections”

Amid the crisis in relations between Georgia and the collective West, the government fears external interference in the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for October 26. One of the reasons for the deterioration in relations was the adoption of the “foreign agents” law in Georgia, which requires media and NGOs receiving at least 20 per cent of their funding from abroad to register. Moreover, despite the Georgian authorities' willingness to reset relations with Brussels and Washington, no significant progress has been made in this direction.

Informed means armed…

The concern of the Georgian authorities about possible interference in the country's domestic political life did not arise out of nowhere. The West has not only shown its dissatisfaction with Georgia's policies but has also resorted to radical methods of influence. On July 31, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that, due to the adoption of the foreign “agents law” in Georgia, Washington would suspend its aid program to Tbilisi amounting to over $95 million. For the same reason, the EU decided to freeze €30 million that was planned for the Georgian Ministry of Defence. Brussels and Washington accused Tbilisi of "undermining democracy," failing to meet "European" and "Euro-Atlantic" values, and threatened personal sanctions, blocking Georgia's "Euro-Atlantic prospects," stripping it of its EU candidate status, and suspending the visa-free regime for its citizens. The West thus demonstrated that no political process in Georgia is beyond its scrutiny.

Meanwhile, Tbilisi's concerns about Western interference in the upcoming parliamentary elections are not only well-founded but also supported by the following fact. At the end of last month, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) released information that the US is preparing a "color revolution" in Georgia. According to the SVR, the West plans to unveil "evidence of election fraud" on the "Tbilisi Maidan," declare the election results invalid, demand a change of government, and provoke law enforcement agencies to use force to suppress protests.

In addition, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin recently stated in an interview with TASS that the West is attempting to implement another "Maidan" scenario in Georgia by October, aiming to create a new flashpoint near Russia's borders.

"We see attempts by Westerners to escalate the situation in Georgia in the context of the upcoming parliamentary elections in October. We do not rule out that the goal is to try to implement a 'Maidan' scenario for a change of power with the aim of creating another hotspot of tension at Russia's borders," said Galuzin.

Official Tbilisi, for its part, does not conceal this fact. Mamuka Mdinaradze, Executive Secretary of the ruling party "Georgian Dream," assured journalists that the country's leadership will not allow anyone to make decisions on behalf of the Georgian people and their elected government. He also noted that external influence will increase in Georgia before the elections, and "war party" representatives will attempt to influence the electoral process.

Earlier (on August 11), Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze also stated that the parliamentary elections would take place under unprecedented external interference. Official Tbilisi is thus signaling to its Western partners that "Georgian Dream" intends to defend national interests and will not allow external forces to interfere in the country's internal political agenda.

There is another important aspect to consider. Despite the deterioration in relations with the West, Georgia continues to pursue a Euro-Atlantic course, which acts as a catalyst for Western interference in its internal affairs. In contrast, Azerbaijan offers a different example. Azerbaijan is not aligned with any Western or Eastern military blocs and follows an independent foreign policy that prioritizes its national interests. The country has no plans to join NATO or the EU; instead, it is a member of the Non-Aligned Movement, which helps to significantly reduce the risk of Western interference in its domestic matters. While there were criticisms from international bodies like the OSCE/ODIHR during the recent parliamentary elections, highlighting the often-criticized Western standards that the country has faced since the Armenian occupation, Azerbaijan has effectively resisted any attempts at external interference.

Serbia as hostage of Western interests

The West's policy of interfering in the internal affairs of other countries is clearly evident in the case of Serbia. As is well known, parliamentary elections for the National Assembly were held in Serbia in December 2023, after which the country experienced widespread unrest. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, in an emergency address to the nation, stated that the attempted storming of the National Assembly (city hall) in Belgrade by opposition supporters was driven by external factors and aimed at undermining the country's sovereignty.

The West's interference in Serbia's internal affairs is manifest in its attempts to force the country to recognize Kosovo. Back in May 2022, Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić clearly stated that the West demands Serbia's recognition of Kosovo's independence. In other words, the West is attempting to coerce Belgrade into changing its internal and external policies and effectively turning the country into a Western colony, which is a blatant example of a gross violation of international law. This violation occurs despite the Western "defenders of democratic values" loudly proclaiming their commitment to international norms.

A similar opinion is held by the well-known Serbian expert Stevan Gajić, who notes that the West continues to exert significant influence on Serbia’s politics. However, in an interview with Caliber.Az, when discussing the likelihood of Western influence on the upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia, the Serbian political scientist expressed a more optimistic outlook.

“The West has previously attempted to interfere in Georgia’s internal affairs, and such policies will likely continue during the upcoming parliamentary elections. This is especially probable due to the adoption of the foreign ‘agents law’ in Georgia. Although I should point out that this very same law has been in effect in the United States for almost a hundred years. At the same time, I believe that NATO will find it much harder to destabilize the Georgian government and create turmoil in this South Caucasian country. Therefore, from the perspective of Georgia's future internal political situation, I am quite optimistic,” Gajić stated.