Georgia at crossroads: Where to go next and with whom? West is pushing, Moscow is luring

Almost from the get-go of the establishment of bilateral ties between the European Union and Georgia, there have been active discussions about the prospects of the latter’s admission to the European family. That is, it has been going on for quite a long time, but to date, there is still no clear plan for the accession of this South Caucasian republic to the EU.

Meanwhile, in March 2022, Georgia officially applied for membership in the organisation and even received candidate status questionnaires in the same month. However, this has not gone any further.

On the first week of May 2023, EU Ambassador to Georgia Pavel Gerchinsky voiced several curious statements concerning this very sensitive issue for Tbilisi on the air of a regional television and radio company.

Firstly, the European diplomat noted that the EU wants to give Georgia the opportunity to join the organisation, but the country itself decides whether it wants to be a member or not.

“Whatever decision Georgia makes; we respect it in the European Union. We understand that 89 per cent of Georgians support European integration and EU membership. This is a historically high figure," Gerchinsky stated.

Secondly, the ambassador expressed hope that sufficient progress will be made in reforms for the 27 member states to take the next step toward Georgia's membership in the European Union - candidate status, which Georgia may receive as early as December.

And thirdly, the diplomat practically accused the Georgian authorities of the fact that the country's media "are under pressure", adding that "free media is the basis of democracy, and freedom of the press is one of the fundamental values that ensure the strength of the European Union, especially now, in time of the Russian-Ukrainian war”.

Here, Gerchinsky pointedly noted that this war is directed not only against Ukraine. That is, despite the cautious optimism of his statements, he actually indicated that the issue of Georgia's membership in the EU at this stage largely depends on its official position on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.

Evidently, Georgia caused serious dissatisfaction in the West with its policy when it did not join the EU anti-Russian sanctions and did not open a second front. Tbilisi limited itself to providing humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, ignoring Kyiv's request for the weapons supply.

Moreover, back in December 2022, Chairman of the Georgian Dream parliament faction Mamuka Mdinaradze noted that the Georgian authorities cannot and will not provide military assistance to Ukraine. In turn, Ukraine’s Chargé d'Affaires in Georgia Andrey Kasyanov confirmed that Kyiv had repeatedly appealed to Tbilisi with a request to transfer military or dual-use equipment, all of which remained with no response.

One can, however, assume that the West's dissatisfaction with Georgia's position is connected not only with its refusal to provide weapons to Ukraine, since this is a rather controversial issue, especially considering that the country does not have an enviable military arsenal.

According to the statistics of the Global Firepower Index 2021, Georgia only ranked 92nd out of 138 countries in the military power list, outstripping only Armenia from the post-Soviet countries, which took the 100th place.

However, that's beyond the point. Here it is obvious that the West is mainly irritated by the relative warming of Georgia's relations with Russia. In order not to come off as unfounded, let's turn to the facts.

In March of 2023, Head of the State Duma Committee on The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots Leonid Kalashnikov remarked that Russia and Georgia were on the verge of resuming direct flights. This, however, did not become a sensation, since only a month prior to that, Chairman of the Georgian Dream party Irakli Kobakhidze, openly called for the restoration of air links with Russia. Clearly, this news could not arouse enthusiasm among Georgia's Western partners.

The Georgian expert community reacted to this by remarking that the resumption of direct flights is a symbolic gesture of Moscow in response to the fact that Tbilisi remains neutral to the Russian war against Ukraine, i.e., "behaves well", for which it is getting the special treatment.

Such conclusions are not at all unfounded and perfectly fit into the February statements of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who paternally hailed that "the Georgian leadership, not yielding to pressure from the West, demonstrates courage."

Moscow's endorsement of Tbilisi's policy in the current complex geopolitical realities significantly reduces fears in Georgia itself related to the risks posed by the Russian Federation. Especially considering Russian tanks only 40 kilometers from Tbilisi - in occupied South Ossetia.

It is also quite important that, according to The New York Times, European goods and raw materials prohibited for the Russian market can enter Russia from Türkiye through Georgia, and at the end of 2022 Georgia's GDP grew by 10 per cent largely due to tourism and trade relations with Russia. Despite the lack of flights from Moscow to Tbilisi so far, Russian citizens still remain in the top five tourists visiting Georgia, with Russians topping this list altogether in 2022.

However, the paradox is that Georgia has also turned into one of the most sought-after destinations for Russian citizens who leave the country because of disagreement with the Kremlin's policy or fleeing from mobilisation. According to statistics, almost 1,100,000 Russians visited Georgia in 2022.

One way or another, all these facts together indicate a consistent rapprochement between Russia and Georgia, which unambiguously alienates the prospect of its accession to the EU and NATO. Perhaps for the same reason, Georgia itself is increasingly inclined towards a gradual warming-up with Russia, realising the futility of joining the big European family.

Similarly, Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze spoke without any ambition in the same spirit, noting that if Georgia does not receive the status of a candidate for the EU, no catastrophe will occur.

“If we are given the status of an EU candidate, then we will be happy. If they don’t give it to us, it wouldn’t matter either way,” he noted.

He also stressed that, due to Georgia’s success in the fight against corruption, it deserved the EU candidate status more than Ukraine and Moldova.

Taking into consideration Moldova’s clear position in Russia’s war in Ukraine, all doubts remain clear that the only obstacle on Georgia’s way to the EU is its refusal to join Western sanctions, with all the consequences. And judging by the messages from Russia and the EU, Georgia will have to make a clear choice, and very soon...