German president’s visit to South Caucasus, and Trump's tariff war Weekly review by Caliber.Az 

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of the “Sobitiya” (Events) show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev, where he covers the top news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries. 

AZERBAIJAN 

President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier has recently paid an official visit to Azerbaijan’s capital Baku. 

However, his arrival was preceded by an awkward incident. President Steinmeier's preliminary visit to Yerevan was accompanied by a provocative social media post from the German president's administration. The post covered the theme of the non-existent "Nagorno-Karabakh" and featured the flag of the former separatists. At the same time, the German channel DW released a film that showed full empathy for Armenian separatism. Baku's firm stance led the German president's administration to issue a written apology for the post, attributing it to a "technical error". Of course, we will not consider this as a serious explanation, although we do appreciate Germany's apology. Clearly, Berlin, still under the influence of Paris, seemed to be attempting to apply indirect pressure on Baku. 

By threatening to revive the Karabakh issue, certain forces in Europe are attempting to pressure Baku into dropping its preconditions for Yerevan regarding constitutional reforms and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, urging it to sign a peace agreement with Armenia immediately. It is no coincidence that, lately, political circles and media outlets in several European countries have increasingly been discussing alleged new conditions that Baku is supposedly imposing on Yerevan. A similar question was posed to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev by a German journalist during a joint press conference with his counterpart. President Aliyev made his position clear, stating that these conditions are not new.

“Once these two conditions are met, there will be no obstacles to signing the peace treaty. As they say, the ball is in Armenia's court. If Armenia genuinely wants to sign a peace treaty, it must accept these two legitimate conditions of Azerbaijan,” the president said.

For his part, Steinmeier, attempting to smooth over the negative impression caused by his administration's mistake, deliberately stressed: “We know and recognize that the Karabakh region is the territory of Azerbaijan”. Instead of attempting to exert pressure on Baku, Europeans would be better off focusing on Armenia's reputation. After all, the testimonies of the accused in the ongoing trial in Baku clearly confirm the fact of Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani territories. 

For example, the accused David Manukyan, who served in the Armenian Armed Forces with the rank of Major General, stated that the "Minister of Defense" of the separatist regime operating in the occupied Azerbaijani territories was appointed by the Republic of Armenia. Higher military ranks for officers in the "army" were also awarded by Yerevan. He also stated that orders and plans for conducting military exercises in the previously occupied territories were issued by the Armenian Armed Forces General Staff. 

Manukyan pointed out that Armenia's Defence Ministry sent officers serving in the occupied Azerbaijani territories to training courses in Russia, the US, Germany, and Greece, and financed their education. Baku hosted the 11th Ministerial Meeting of the Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council and the 3rd Ministerial Meeting of the Green Energy Advisory Council. During the meetings, President Aliyev outlined plans to supply gas to many more European countries.

The president said that the feasibility study of the project of laying the green cable from Azerbaijan to Europe is at its final stage. 

“Azerbaijan will play an even more important role for our partners with respect to energy security,” President Aliyev said. 

UKRAINE - RUSSIA

In Ukraine, positional battles continue along the entire front line. In the Sumy region, Russian forces are conducting raids to seize several settlements. Meanwhile, in the Belgorod region of Russia, which borders Sumy, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have managed to strengthen the positions they previously held. Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front, US President Trump seems to be losing patience, growing frustrated with both Zelenskyy and Putin. Zelenskyy rejected another US deal proposal regarding rare earth metals, refusing to acknowledge the previous military aid from the US as a debt. Putin not only once again questioned Zelenskyy’s legitimacy but also proposed external governance of Ukraine through the United Nations. 

As a result, Trump threatened Kyiv with major issues and warned Moscow of tariffs ranging from 25 to 50 per cent on imports from countries purchasing Russian oil. The largest importers of Russian crude are China and India. It seems that the Russian authorities decided to smooth things over and sent Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, to Washington. Dmitriev, who participated in the first talks with Americans in Riyadh back in February, spoke positively about the prospects of resuming air travel between the US and Russia, as well as the development of rare earth metals in Russia. Not a single word was mentioned about Ukraine. 

Moreover, all of this took place amid a visit to Moscow by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, following which both sides reaffirmed their loyalty to each other. Wang Yi even went as far as to use a metaphor, saying, "Our relationship is as strong as Mount Tai." Mount Tai is one of China's most iconic symbols. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed with his counterpart, highlighting that such a trusting cooperation between Russia and China had never existed before. However, the sides could also discuss the American tariffs, which were indeed imposed, not only on China but on the entire world. This is exactly what we will talk later. 

US 

Indeed, US President Donald Trump has recently declared a global trade war. In a formal ceremony in the White House Rose Garden, Trump proclaimed April 2 as "America's Liberation Day" and announced the introduction of sweeping tariffs on imports to the US, the likes of which haven’t been seen since the early 20th century.

"It's our declaration of economic independence," Trump said in the Rose Garden. Trump made his announcement, which he billed as "Liberation Day". "Today we are standing up for the American worker and we are finally putting America first," Trump said, calling it "one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history".

Trump's executive order introduced a 34 per cent tariff against China, 20 per cent against the EU, 24 per cent against Japan, and 26 per cent against India. As we can see, in Trump's trade war, there are no friends or enemies for America. 

Even the US closest ally, Israel, faces a 17 per cent tariff. Overall, no country will be exempt from tariffs on their goods sold to Americans — the "minimum base tariff" will be set at 10 per cent. Trump is not only aiming to boost American production and replenish the treasury, but also has geopolitical objectives in mind. He stated that he was open to negotiations, adding that if others didn't like the new tariffs, they could cancel their own and see what happened. The key question is what concessions the US president is willing to make in exchange for lowering tariffs. Some commentators even link this issue to Trump's territorial claims on Greenland. 

FRANCE

A French court has found the leader of the far-right party "National Rally," Marine Le Pen, guilty of misusing European Union funds. According to the prosecution, between 2004 and 2016, Le Pen and other members of her party's leadership falsely hired assistants, who are typically allocated to European Parliament members. These assistants rarely appeared in the European Parliament and instead worked as party staff at the national level. Prosecutors argue that approximately 3 million euros were embezzled from EU funds in this way. The court ruled that Marine Le Pen is banned from running for public office for five years, meaning she will be unable to participate in the 2027 French presidential election. 

According to recent polls, Le Pen was considered one of the most likely contenders for victory. In addition, the court sentenced Le Pen to four years in prison—two of which are suspended, and the remaining two will be served under an electronic bracelet. The politician is also required to pay a fine of 100,000 euros. Le Pen herself called the court’s decision "political" and expressed her intention to appeal. It’s hard to argue against the political motivation behind the court’s ruling. It seems that the liberal elite has decided to prevent the rise of far-right forces to power in France. 

The irony is that the National Rally has another backup candidate – the young and charismatic, formal party leader, Jordan Bardella. Even if Le Pen’s conviction is upheld, Bardella’s chances of winning the next presidential election would sharply increase, especially in light of the growing discontent among the French with the actions of the ruling elites. One can’t help but wonder if things are not as they seem and whether the rise in popularity of the far-right in France is being intentionally fueled.  

MIDDLE EAST

Israel continues and expands its military operation in the Gaza Strip. According to the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) statement, the operations are aimed at enlarging Israel's buffer zone along the Gaza border. Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel plans to establish a new corridor through the southern part of Gaza to cut off Rafah city. By effectively shrinking the size of the Gaza Strip and simultaneously targeting Hamas leaders, Tel Aviv is applying maximum pressure on the group in an effort to force it into the next phase of negotiations for the return of hostages. 

After previously voiced threats to bomb Iran, US President Donald Trump shared his new perspective on a deal with the Islamic Republic, presumably based on factual developments. He stated that the Iranians now want to enter direct negotiations with Washington. Tehran had previously, at least officially, rejected such talks.