How Croatian nationalism fuels Bosnia’s political crisis

In a compelling and sobering analysis, Foreign Policy unpacks the complex and escalating political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina, highlighting Croatia’s increasingly aggressive role in undermining the country’s sovereignty and stability. Nearly three decades after the Dayton Agreement brought an uneasy peace to a war-torn nation, Bosnia now faces renewed existential threats—not just from long-standing Serb separatism, but from a resurgent Croatian nationalist agenda that could unravel fragile regional security and derail European integration.

The Dayton Agreement of 1995, brokered in Dayton, Ohio, ended Bosnia’s brutal war by creating a complex and highly divided political system, partitioning the country into two main entities: the Serb-majority Republika Srpska (RS) and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (comprising Bosniaks and Croats). While the deal halted violence, it entrenched ethnic divisions and institutionalized a dysfunctional governance structure. Since then, Republika Srpska’s leadership, notably Milorad Dodik, has consistently pursued a secessionist agenda with tacit international tolerance but little effective pushback.

Foreign Policy’s analysis reveals a parallel and equally dangerous development: Croatia’s political leadership, particularly through the Bosnian Croat party HDZ BiH and its close coordination with Zagreb, is advancing a strategy to reshape Bosnia’s political landscape along ethnonationalist lines. This approach revives the discredited and criminal wartime blueprint of carving Bosnia into ethnically pure territories, this time through political and legal mechanisms rather than armed conflict.

Central to this Croatian strategy is the push for “legitimate representation,” a political claim that HDZ BiH alone should determine who represents Croats in Bosnia—effectively excluding Croats in mixed regions from voting for Croat members of the presidency. This move would create ethnically exclusive “special territorial zones” reminiscent of the wartime Herzeg-Bosna entity, outlawed as a joint criminal enterprise by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Such proposals enshrine ethnic segregation in Bosnia’s political system and threaten to deepen divisions rather than heal them.

Foreign Policy highlights the Croatian government’s active resistance to European Court of Human Rights rulings, particularly Kovacevic v. Bosnia and Herzegovina, which challenged ethnic discrimination embedded in Bosnia’s electoral laws. Despite constitutional obligations, Croatian political actors have dismissed these rulings as politically motivated, further undermining efforts to align Bosnia’s institutions with European norms of civic democracy and individual rights.

The article also documents a disturbing shift in Croatian political discourse. Where once progressive leaders like Stjepan Mesic, Ivo Josipovic, and Vesna Pusic championed Bosnian state sovereignty and multiethnic cooperation, today’s Croatian leadership, including President Zoran Milanovic, adopts inflammatory nationalist rhetoric, sometimes bordering on racism, particularly targeting Bosniaks. This regression signals a broader collapse of constructive political dialogue and endangers the delicate postwar order.

Foreign Policy’s incisive critique exposes the wider geopolitical implications of Croatia’s actions. By effectively supporting Dodik’s secessionist ambitions through political subversion rather than outright conflict, Croatia is complicit in a managed erosion of Bosnia’s statehood. The article warns that the international community’s failure to robustly defend Bosnia’s sovereignty risks transforming the country into a perpetual battleground for nationalist rivalries, undermining European security and Western credibility.

Ultimately, the piece calls for a bold reimagining of Bosnia’s future—one rooted in civic inclusion rather than ethnic exclusivity. It challenges Europe and the United States to uphold the values of democracy and human rights by pushing for comprehensive constitutional reforms that ensure political representation based on citizenship, not ethnicity. Without this, Bosnia’s long path to peace and EU integration remains perilously stalled.

By Vugar Khalilov