How dissolution of PKK could pave way for stronger Türkiye-Iraq-Syria ties

In a historic announcement, the PKK terrorist group declared its dissolution last week, signalling the potential end of a four-decade insurgency that claimed tens of thousands of lives in the region as well as abroad. This development could usher in a new era of peace and cooperation among Türkiye, Iraq, and Syria, the three countries most heavily impacted by PKK-related violence. Analysts believe that, if the group follows through, the move could eliminate the major obstacle to regional stability, unlock economic development opportunities, and strengthen diplomatic relations, especially between Türkiye and Iraq.

For decades, the PKK maintained bases in northern Iraq, prompting Türkiye to launch repeated military operations across the border. With the terror threat removed, an article by the Daily Sabah suggests Ankara may no longer need to conduct such interventions, paving the way for a more stable and cooperative regional environment.

Oytun Orhan, a Middle East expert from ORSAM, told the publication that the PKK’s full disbandment could significantly improve Türkiye’s ties with both Baghdad and Irbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Turkish-Iraqi relations have long been strained due to Ankara’s cross-border military operations targeting PKK militants in Iraq. If terrorism is no longer a concern, Orhan believes diplomatic relations can return to a firmer, more constructive foundation.

Economically, the PKK’s end may also revive momentum for the $17 billion Development Road project, a major infrastructure initiative linking Iraq’s Grand Faw Port to Türkiye and then to Europe through highways and railways. Such a project has been delayed in part due to regional instability caused by the PKK’s presence. According to the article, Iraq’s recent statements describing the PKK as a “common threat” signal a growing willingness to collaborate with Türkiye in a post-terror context.

Complex picture in Syria

However, Syria presents a more complex front. Türkiye insists that PKK-affiliated groups, especially the YPG in northern Syria, must also be included in the disbandment. Although the YPG has historically resisted such moves, it signed a deal with Damascus in March to eventually dissolve and integrate into Syria’s official state institutions. This agreement includes turning over control of border crossings, airports, and oil fields to the Damascus government. However, the extent and timeline of this integration remain uncertain. Orhan argues that the PKK’s dissolution could weaken its influence on the YPG, making the group’s incorporation into the Syrian state more feasible. This, in turn, might alleviate Türkiye’s security concerns and ease tensions with Syria.

Türkiye has long opposed the YPG due to its links with the PKK and sees any move toward federalism or a decentralized state in Syria as unacceptable, the article notes. Recent YPG calls for autonomous status in a post-Assad Syria have been strongly rejected by Damascus and Ankara alike. Orhan warned that allowing exceptions for the YPG in the Syrian army could ignite new ethnic or sectarian conflicts, mirroring the instability seen in Iraq and Jordan. Both Türkiye and Syria have drawn a red line against such a structure, underscoring the need for one unified armed force within the Syrian state to maintain peace.

Despite the PKK’s announcement, the publication calls for caution as it suggests risks remain. Some factions within the group have rejected the decision to disband and remain committed to armed struggle. Orhan cautioned that these splinter elements could jeopardize the overall peace process, as they may not follow Öcalan’s directive to lay down arms. While Türkiye remains skeptical and vigilant, continuing counterterrorism efforts while preparing for possible dissident regrouping, Ankara is also open to political engagement, provided groups abandon violence. According to Orhan, Türkiye will distinguish between factions pursuing peaceful political agendas and those persisting with armed terrorism, allowing it to better determine future allies and adversaries in the region.

By Nazrin Sadigova