How war in Ukraine could go nuclear—by accident

An article by Foreign Affairs raises a critical and alarming concern about the vulnerability of Russia's nuclear arsenal in the context of its ongoing war in Ukraine. The piece argues that the escalation of the conflict, along with Russia's strategic mismanagement of its nuclear weapons, has increased the likelihood of a nuclear incident — potentially by accident — with catastrophic consequences.

The article highlights that Russia has positioned a significant portion of its nuclear warheads, roughly 30 per cent of its estimated 5,580 warheads, in precarious locations within striking range of Ukrainian missiles, drones, and troops. Ukraine's increasing use of drone strikes, some reaching as far as Moscow, means that at least 14 Russian nuclear storage sites are now within range of Ukrainian military capabilities. This proximity creates an unprecedented risk for an accidental targeting or miscalculation.

A central claim of the article is that Russia has failed to properly secure its nuclear warheads despite acknowledging the risks posed by the ongoing war. After Ukraine's first drone attack on Belgorod in spring 2023, Russia removed warheads from one storage site, but no further updates have been provided regarding other nuclear storage sites. This failure to act appropriately puts the warheads in potential danger from military operations, drone strikes, and missile attacks.

The piece notes that Russia has breached the principles of nuclear security by conducting military operations near its own nuclear sites. The use of military bases that store nuclear warheads, such as Engels-2, as launching pads for attacks on Ukraine makes these bases legitimate targets for counteroffensives. This puts both the warheads themselves and the security of the surrounding regions at significant risk.

The author expresses concern over the possible escalation triggered by the proximity of Ukrainian operations to Russian nuclear warhead storage sites. A drone or missile strike on a storage facility, though unlikely to cause a nuclear detonation, could lead to a major explosion releasing fissile material and rendering large areas uninhabitable. Additionally, such an incident could trigger a chain of events that escalates the conflict further — either intentionally, through misinterpretation, or by Russia’s own escalation doctrine.

Another grave concern raised is the potential for rogue actors to seize nuclear warheads in the chaos of battle. This would be especially dangerous if Ukrainian forces were to capture or damage a storage site, allowing non-state actors, such as terrorists or mercenaries (including former Wagner group fighters), to seize and potentially misuse the weapons.

The article stresses that China, as a growing ally of Russia, is in a unique position to influence Russian behaviour, especially regarding the security of its nuclear arsenal. China’s involvement in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty’s P5 process and its increasing influence over Moscow mean it could exert pressure on Russia to secure its nuclear sites. Additionally, the article suggests that the international community, including the United Nations and signatories to the Nonproliferation Treaty, must hold Russia accountable for its failure to secure its nuclear assets.

A central theme of the piece is that nuclear deterrence relies on the secure and responsible management of nuclear arsenals. If Russia’s nuclear warheads are in jeopardy, it risks not only a major security breach but also undermines its own credibility as a nuclear power. The article underscores the importance of moving warheads away from frontlines and conflict zones to mitigate the risks posed by the war in Ukraine.

One of the most significant takeaways from the piece is the potential for accidental escalation due to the vulnerability of nuclear storage sites. The possibility of a drone strike or missile attack on a nuclear storage site, while unlikely to directly trigger a nuclear explosion, could result in a catastrophic incident that might lead to a broader military conflict or, in the worst-case scenario, a nuclear exchange.

The piece emphasizes that Russia’s management of its nuclear arsenal in a war zone contradicts basic tenets of nuclear security. The international community, particularly major powers like China and the United States, must apply diplomatic pressure on Russia to relocate its nuclear warheads to safer locations. Failure to do so could endanger global security, especially if a nuclear incident occurs.

The opinion piece provides a stark and compelling analysis of the risks associated with Russia’s nuclear arsenal in the context of its invasion of Ukraine. The author argues that the war has put nuclear warheads at significant risk of being caught up in the crossfire, either through direct targeting or through chaotic situations that could lead to nuclear escalation. The piece calls for immediate action to secure Russian nuclear sites, both to protect Russia’s arsenal and to prevent the risk of accidental nuclear warfare.

The article is a reminder that the presence of nuclear weapons in war zones not only poses direct risks to the countries involved but also threatens the broader stability of international relations and security. While the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used in the conflict may remain low, the risk of an accidental detonation or escalation remains an urgent issue that demands immediate attention from the global community.