International poll shows US soft power still prevails over China's influence

As the US approaches a pivotal presidential election, global anticipation is palpable, with many watching closely despite lacking a vote, The Economist highlights.

On the eve of America’s presidential election, many around the globe are anxiously awaiting the results. While non-Americans do not have a vote, the election's outcome will significantly impact issues such as international trade, the credibility of Western defense alliances, and the rise of China. To assess global public opinion, The Economist collaborated with Globescan, a consulting and polling firm, surveying 30,000 people worldwide.

The findings indicate considerable support for a Democratic victory in the presidential race, but there is also a notable segment of Donald Trump supporters outside the US. Despite Russia's ongoing military pressure on Ukraine, the country maintains substantial backing, even among nations in the global south. Furthermore, the poll suggests that, despite the challenges posed by a new coalition of autocracies, America’s soft power remains significantly stronger than that of China. Over two months, Globescan conducted online surveys of 30,000 individuals across 29 countries, plus Hong Kong.

These surveys included major advanced economies and the largest emerging markets, excluding mainland China. Participants were consistently asked three key questions: which American candidate they preferred, whether they wanted Russia or Ukraine to win the war, and whether they preferred America or China as the world's leading power. In each nation, a representative sample of approximately 1,000 people was surveyed in July and August. President Joe Biden exited the race during the initial phase, on July 21st; the questions were structured to accommodate a potential candidate change.

Starting with the first question about whether respondents preferred the “Democratic Party candidate” or the “Republican Party candidate,” an average of 45 per cent of people across all countries favored the Democratic Party, whose current candidate is Kamala Harris, while 33 per cent preferred Mr. Trump. In Europe, the gap was even wider: 55 per cent supported the Democrats, compared to just 26 per cent for Mr. Trump. Globally, the Democrats led among both genders and across all educational and income levels. However, despite his nativist politics, Mr. Trump enjoys notable support worldwide. For instance, young people showed almost equal preferences; among those aged 25-34, an average of 40 per cent favored a Democratic president, while 38 per cent wanted a Republican. Across all age groups, Mr. Trump was favored in one-third of countries or territories, including Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Vietnam. Possible reasons for this support include an affinity for strongman leadership and dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s Middle East policies.

What about the second question regarding Ukraine? Globally, support for Ukraine was significant, with an average of 54 per cent of respondents expressing a preference for its victory in the war, compared to just 20 per cent who favored Russia. In 25 out of the 30 countries or territories surveyed, more people supported Ukraine than Russia. Solidarity was particularly strong in Europe and among other American allies, such as South Korea and Japan. Interestingly, this support was also robust in several major “non-aligned” emerging economies, including Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa, whose governments remain neutral or even favorable toward Russia. 

By Naila Huseynova