Political chess to determine outcome of Czech Republic's parliamentary elections

As Czech voters prepare to head to the polls on 3–4 October to elect a new parliament, a complex political drama is playing out in the background. Billionaire populist Andrej Babiš is making a determined bid to return to power, having previously served as prime minister from 2017 to 2021. The election will reshape the 200-seat lower house using a proportional representation system with a 5% entry threshold — a mechanism that can severely penalize fragmented political forces. Analysts say Babiš is deploying an unusual, strategic approach to secure victory for his ANO party.

The ex-prime minister, who amassed his wealth through the Agrofert holding group — a conglomerate of over 230 companies — is said to be encouraging his opponents to remain politically viable. As reported by Polish outlet TVP World, his goal appears to be parliamentary dilution: keeping enough smaller parties in the mix to avoid having to ally with his most problematic rival in a future coalition.

Recent polling suggests Babiš’s right-wing ANO party is leading with roughly 30% of the vote. In contrast, the ruling Spolu coalition — an alliance of centre-right Civic Democrats (ODS), Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL), and liberal-conservative TOP 09 — trails at around 20%. Their junior government partners, the centrist STAN party (10%) and the Pirates-Greens alliance (8%), lag further behind.

The likely scenario is that ANO will win the most seats but fall short of a majority, requiring Babiš to form a coalition in an increasingly fragmented chamber. However, his room to maneuver is shrinking.

Below the ANO-Spolu contest lies a growing cluster of anti-establishment parties appealing to disillusioned voters. This bloc shares resentment over falling living standards, dissatisfaction with traditional politics, and opposition to EU migration and climate policies.

Dark sheep in Czech political landscape

At the heart of this protest movement stands Babiš’s least preferred partner, the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, led by Japanese-Czech entrepreneur Tomio Okamura. SPD promotes nationalist, anti-migration views and supports direct democracy. This year, it has gone further, openly calling for a referendum on EU membership (“Czexit”), and in one interview, Okamura even endorsed a NATO exit vote.

Okamura, an MP in the Chamber of Deputies, sparked national outrage during the 2022 regional elections with an inflammatory anti-immigration campaign. One billboard depicted an AI-generated image of a dark-skinned man in blood-stained surgical attire holding a knife, captioned: “Imported surgeons won’t solve shortages in healthcare.” Another showed Romani children smoking, with the slogan: “Welfare benefits only for families whose children attend school.” Authorities ruled both posters to be racist and charged Okamura with inciting hatred against racial and ethnic groups.

According to the article, Babiš’s strategy is rooted in harsh electoral math. While ANO leads comfortably, an outright majority is unlikely. Without coalition allies, Babiš can’t govern.

The danger lies in protest parties falling below the 5% threshold. If too many fail to qualify, the report points out their votes are discarded, boosting the bigger parties and reducing Babiš’s post-election options. A similar scenario hurt him in 2021, when several potential allies missed the cutoff, stranding him despite ANO’s first-place finish.

A formal coalition with SPD would be deeply controversial, alienating moderate voters and straining relations with pro-EU President Petr Pavel, a former top NATO general. To avoid this, Babiš has tried to act as a mediator, pushing smaller groups to collaborate.

President's last say

Under Czech constitutional law, the president appoints the prime minister, but can demand that the candidate proves majority support before forming a government. There’s no deadline to do so, giving the president significant leverage.

President Petr Pavel, elected in 2023, is firmly pro-EU, pro-NATO, and a staunch supporter of Ukraine. He has declared that any government involving extremists or anti-Western parties would be unacceptable. “Anyone who questions our security alliances is a risk to this country,” he recently warned.

As a result, even if Babiš manages to build a majority that includes parties like SPD or Stačilo!, Pavel may reject key appointments or block the coalition altogether if it threatens Czechia’s Western alignment.

Ultimately, the article argues, the election may hinge less on who wins and more on who clears the 5% threshold. In such a fragmented race, minor protest groups could become unexpected kingmakers — deciding who will govern Czechia for the next four years.

By Nazrin Sadigova