Iran-Armenia talks: universal "Rubik's Cube" of Azerbaijani diplomacy Regional analysis for Caliber.Az

After the recent phone talks between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Yerevan once again breathed a sigh of relief. Iran still intends to cooperate with Armenia, everything is good, and no one has abandoned anyone. After the signing of the Baku-Tehran agreement on the construction of an alternative Zangazur corridor and the announcement of a new stage of strategic cooperation between the two countries, Yerevan worried as if it felt something bad. Yerevan has been recently very pleased, looking at the tense confrontation between Iran and Azerbaijan, however, now Armenia doubts whether the Iranians really strive for a strategic partnership with the country which is a political and economic loser.

The disappointment and anxiety of Armenian politicians are a consequence of the successful work of Azerbaijan's diplomacy, which is multifaceted in completely different spheres. Azerbaijan never pits its neighbours, but, on the contrary, pursues a policy of effective partnership, in which there is no sense, and it is simply unprofitable to betray anyone.

The consequence of this work and President Raisi’s warning message to Pashinyan were especially stressed during their conversation. The Iranian president expressed hope "that the remaining issues in the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be resolved peacefully by respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the two countries, in accordance with the principles of international law”. Despite Yerevan's hopes for some special attitude towards itself, Iran made it clear that it does not intend to “play separatist games”, it does not need problems. There is no sense and benefit for Tehran to support Yerevan as earlier after receiving so many privileges in cooperation with Azerbaijan and promoting Iranian projects in the Karabakh region, as well as an agreement on the "Iranian Zangazur". The period of a warm friendship between Iran and Armenia has been replaced by a rational attitude towards building partner bridges with the two South Caucasian countries, but with the priority of the one who will offer more, and Azerbaijan used this opportunity.

Azerbaijan began to solve its diplomatic "Rubik's Cube" long ago, in which all sides of foreign policy - both in the South Caucasus and the Middle East, work universally and effectively. Of course, the work was carried out more efficiently after Azerbaijan’s victory in the 44-day second Karabakh war. Azerbaijan has greatly strengthened its military and political significance, the mechanism has become more perfect. Brilliant initiatives as the leader of the member states of the Non-Aligned Movement, the Organisation of Turkic States, as well as vigorous work in the global international format, including the work with the UN, the process of overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic, certainly strengthened Azerbaijani diplomacy recently and made it more skillful and more pragmatic.

In fact, Azerbaijan has used the saying “the best way to destroy your enemy is to make him your friend” as one of its diplomatic principles. Earlier, the danger of any bloc confrontation between Iran and Russia, on the one hand, and Azerbaijan and Türkiye - on the other hand, has been recently posed in the South Caucasus, however, the situation has greatly changed.

Having made Iran interested in cooperation with Baku, Azerbaijan continued to solve its "Rubik's Cube" because even if Tehran became an effective partner of Baku, there is still a conflict between Iran and Israel. Baku makes another virtuoso diplomatic pirouette. Türkiye and Israel began a new era in building their relations thanks to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s personal initiatives. Of course, Azerbaijan is not the centre of the universe, and it is obvious that both Türkiye and Israel thought that it would be nice to build bridges again, at least amid EU and US messages about the need to create alternative ways to supply energy resources from Israel to Türkiye as well. However, Baku felt the significance of the moment, namely, when it is worth laying the first and main "brick", launching the process.

Now, as some international analysts say, Baku has achieved a brilliant balance in all geopolitical directions in the region. The Iranian threat has greatly weakened as a result of the successful establishment of Ankara-Tel Aviv ties, including the military ones. The probable Russian pressure in the region based on Tehran has been balanced by cooperation between Tehran and Baku. Baku's diplomatic "cement" has also solidified due to the processes which seemed improbable. Israel also began to analyse the risks of launching a big war with Iran, taking into account the interests of its partners in the region and its benefits. The opinions of Ankara and Baku related to the complicated relations between Israel and Iran in the region are more important for Tel Aviv than Washington’s pressure. While addressing Pashinyan, Raisi confirmed his support for Azerbaijan within the international law and the integrity of borders, and this once again shows the perfect work of Azerbaijani diplomacy in the Rubik’s Cube style - “nothing personal, only business” and a sound assessment of the geopolitical situations. The upcoming summit in Tehran in the format of "3 + 3" vividly testifies to this.