Threat in Tbilisi poses risk for Asia-Europe transit Middle Corridor in peril

After the escalation of the Iran-Israel confrontation and amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, communication between Asia and Europe has been almost completely disrupted, except for a narrow corridor passing through the South Caucasus — in fact, the very same Middle Corridor, whose strategic importance has increased not only on land. Most air routes have been forced into a kind of "bottleneck" between the Caspian and Black Seas, passing through Azerbaijan and Georgia.

However, there are geopolitical forces that would like to cut off this corridor as well, and they might achieve this by destabilising the situation in Georgia. After the parliamentary elections on October 26, 2024, attempts to implement such a scenario through a "Maidan"-style upheaval failed.

However, in the near future, external forces and their local agents in Georgia — namely the "pro-European" opposition — may prepare a new attempt to "blow up" the country. They intend to time it with the local self-government elections scheduled for October 4, 2025, which the opposition not long ago planned to boycott, claiming they were organised by an allegedly "illegitimate" government. But now, following corresponding "instructions" from the EU, opposition forces have suddenly begun actively preparing to participate.

For instance, the pro-Western NGO "Institute of Social Studies and Analysis" (ISSA) has already started publishing its ratings and recently released the results of a sociological survey conducted in cooperation with the American organisation Rosner Research LLC from May 5 to 20, 2025. According to the findings, the ruling party Georgian Dream holds 35.2% support, while the combined approval rating of the pro-Western opposition across the country has reached 47.3%, and is even higher in Tbilisi.

According to the same study, a majority of the Georgian population (53%) allegedly believes that protests against Georgian Dream should continue, with one-third of respondents (32%) expressing a firm stance on the issue. The ISSA poll also indicated that most respondents (57.1%) believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Despite the “attractive” figures published by pro-Western NGOs showing supposed support for opposition political forces, the reality is that the opposition has virtually no chance of winning at the local level. It appears a scenario is being prepared in which the authorities will be accused of “rigging the local elections,” followed potentially by violent actions from the opposition in Tbilisi. Therefore, the opposition forces seem to be preparing not so much for the elections themselves as for an unconstitutional seizure of power — a plan some of their leaders are now openly signalling without much restraint.

In particular, the leader of the Lelo party, Mamuka Khazaradze, has called for uniting the opposition and, in effect, forming militant groups to seize power at the local level and in the Georgian capital. According to him, "the liberation of the country from Russian rule must begin in Tbilisi." By "Russian rule," he is, of course, referring to the ruling Georgian Dream party. This is not just a propaganda tactic, but a clear indication that, following a coup d'état and the so-called "liberation of Tbilisi," the fight against Russia will continue. In other words, the opposition is planning to drag Georgia into a conflict with the Russian Federation — a move that would inevitably cut off the Middle Corridor.

“It is necessary to create an independent platform — a headquarters of protest-driven Tbilisi — that will unite all voices of dissent,” Khazaradze wrote on social media.

According to him, the civil headquarters of the Georgian capital must ensure the selection of independent candidates, while protest-driven Tbilisi should decide in advance whom to entrust with governing the city: “Today, those who want independence and freedom for the country must join this struggle — alongside the street protests. The fight against occupation must be waged everywhere! The civil headquarters of Tbilisi must ensure the selection of independent candidates. Let protest-driven Tbilisi decide before the elections whom it will entrust with the city. I am confident that the protest movement and the city will find 50 independent fighters — professionals and honest citizens who will never accept occupation and will stand up bravely to the other challenges facing Tbilisi.”

In essence, Khazaradze has announced the formation of a “headquarters” to prepare for the illegal seizure of power in Tbilisi and a coup d'état, as well as the recruitment of militants into unlawful paramilitary groups. The local elections are merely intended to serve as a pretext, and it is under the guise of this attempted coup that he aims to unite the opposition.

“This struggle must absolutely be non-partisan! Political parties should support these candidates with all their infrastructure and resources. It must be a broad-based civic protest! We are ready for any compromises to create a new unified platform — if necessary, with a new name, a common electoral list, and a single strong candidate chosen by civil society to hand over the management of Tbilisi to those who enjoy the highest trust of the protest community. At the same time, the main demands — new elections and the release of political prisoners — remain unchanged! The fight continues to the very end — on all fronts!” — wrote Khazaradze.

Thus, external forces planning to “blow up” Georgia and thereby “cut off” the Middle Corridor have already identified the political leader who will head this process in Georgia — Mamuka Khazaradze. Moreover, he has partially succeeded in accomplishing one of the tasks assigned to him.

Unable to stop the development of the Middle Corridor, Khazaradze nonetheless managed to seriously delay it—almost six years—by transferring control of the Anaklia deep-sea port construction to his organisation, TBC, in 2017, and then freezing the project in 2018. It was only last year, after a new tender was announced and won by the China-Singapore consortium China Communications Construction Company Limited and China Harbour Investment Pte. Ltd, that the construction of the Anaklia port resumed.

Today, Mamuka Khazaradze is effectively announcing a new attempt at a coup d’état to seize power in Tbilisi, with plans to drag Georgia into a large-scale war. Apparently, Khazaradze does not seem concerned about the harm this will cause to his country and people. But is it really his country? And are those really his people?

If we recall how last year he expressed “outrage” over questions about his Armenian roots—and how that “outrage” was portrayed—many people in Georgia familiar with the nuances of the country’s “national identification” drew their own conclusions. After all, it is no secret that during the Soviet era, in the 1950s and 60s, Georgia had the concept of “three-ruble Armenians”—people who paid 3 rubles under the official fee to have their passports altered, changing Armenian surnames to Georgian ones and their nationality from “Armenian” to “Georgian.”

Today, the Armenian lobby in Georgia is simply outraged that the country is developing dynamically, leveraging close cooperation with Azerbaijan and Türkiye to benefit from the Middle Corridor’s growth—while Armenia finds itself trapped in both geopolitical and logistical dead ends.

The so-called “French grandmother” — former President Salome Zourabichvili — is also set to support the coup attempt. Due to her age and the failure of the previous coup attempt, she is unlikely to be entrusted with leading the new “revolution,” but she will undoubtedly play a key role in organising its “information and diplomatic support.”

“Georgia’s ruling party is deepening ties with Russia, Iran, and China, reversing earlier moves toward the EU and increasing economic and energy dependence - raising serious concerns about geopolitics and Black Sea security. Georgia faces a triple crisis: Democracy is weakening, sovereignty is slipping into Russia’s hands, geopolitically, we’re drifting from Europe toward Russia and China — and no one seems able to stop it,” Zourabichvili wrote on social media.

In her post, she explicitly warns that Georgia’s aspiration toward Europe is “historic and deeply rooted,” and that any disruption of this path “fuels unrest,” effectively announcing a new attempt at a “Maidan” and a coup d’état.

Meanwhile, the transit route between China and Europe through Azerbaijan and Georgia—as a key part of the Middle Corridor—is becoming the only safe and reliable option in the current geopolitical climate. Using anti-Russian, anti-Chinese, and anti-Iranian rhetoric, Salome Zurabishvili and the leaders of the pro-Western Georgian opposition aim to undermine the security of this crucial route at any cost.

By Vladimir Tskhvediani, Georgia, exclusively for Caliber.Az