Azerbaijan’s grain strategy amid global challenges Fighting climate risks with innovation

Climate risks and the growing crisis in the global agricultural sector in recent years are pushing countries around the world to strengthen food security. Azerbaijan is steadily following this path, where agricultural reforms are aimed at increasing domestic production, including in the field of grain cultivation. 

According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Azerbaijan, harvesting of winter crops is currently underway, with 21% of arable land already harvested. A rainy and cold spring somewhat delayed the start of the grain harvest this year. The final yield will become clearer by the end of summer, once the spring crops have been fully harvested.

According to a report published on June 6 by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), global grain production for the 2024–2025 agricultural season is expected to decline slightly by 0.1%, with the total harvest estimated at 2.853 billion tonnes. This modest decrease primarily affects feed crops, especially maize, which represents about 80% of the world’s feed production. The forecast for global wheat production in 2025 has also been lowered, while global wheat trade volume is projected to shrink even more significantly—by 6.9%. Overall, with production remaining largely stagnant, grain stocks—including both feed and food grains—are expected to fall by 2% by the end of the 2025 season, dropping to 865 million tonnes compared to the start of the season.

For the post-Soviet region, the ongoing reduction in Russian grain exports for the second consecutive year is particularly significant. In 2024, due to export quotas and other restrictions, around 10 million tonnes of wheat spoiled in storage facilities because the available elevator capacity did not meet technical standards. The situation has worsened this year. According to the Russian Grain Union (RGU), Russian wheat exports between June 1 and June 15 amounted to only 565,000 tonnes—nearly five times less than the 2.7 million tonnes shipped during the same period last year. Current RGU forecasts estimate total wheat shipments for June at just 1.1 to 1.15 million tonnes, well below initial expectations.

Several factors explain the decline in Russian grain exports. The primary reason is the loss of the previous price advantage Russian wheat had over European wheat—Russian wheat is now about $11 per tonne more expensive than French wheat. Additionally, wheat stocks have fallen by 30–35% compared to the previous season. Sanctions-related restrictions have also drastically reduced the number of countries importing Russian grain—from 40 last year to only 11 this year.

Until quite recently, Russian grains made up the lion’s share of Azerbaijan’s wheat imports. In 2023, Russia accounted for 81% of all wheat imported into the country. This heavy dependence posed serious risks, prompting the Azerbaijani government to take steps to diversify its import sources. Importers also acted proactively last year by purchasing and delivering the majority of food-grade wheat before a series of restrictions and increased customs duties on Russian wheat came into effect. As a result, during the first four months of 2025, imports of Russian wheat and meslin to Azerbaijan dropped significantly, totalling only 60,589 tonnes.

In contrast, Azerbaijan has been increasing wheat imports from Kazakhstan. According to the national company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), exports of the new grain harvest to Azerbaijan reached 104,000 tonnes in September–October 2024. Currently, Kazakhstan supplies 88% of Azerbaijan’s wheat: from January to May 2025, 450,000 tonnes of Kazakh grain were exported to Azerbaijan, an 86% increase compared to the same period last year.

Due to several objective factors, Azerbaijan remains heavily reliant on imports of food-grade grain. According to data from the State Customs Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SCC), the country imported a total of 1.292 million tonnes of wheat in 2024. Similar volumes are imported annually on average, as domestic agriculture faces numerous challenges—chief among them adverse climate changes such as soil erosion, salinisation, and water shortages for irrigation. 

Recently, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) included Azerbaijan among the 20 countries worldwide experiencing the most severe water scarcity in their agricultural sectors. Limited irrigated land suitable for grain production restricts the potential for expanding arable land, further complicating efforts to boost domestic grain output.

“Agricultural efficiency is largely linked to the climate, making this sector the most sensitive to climate changes. For example, in mid-April of this year, Azerbaijan, including Baku, experienced rainfall in a single day equivalent to three months’ worth of precipitation, causing floods and mudflows in 17 mountain rivers,” stated Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s presidential representative for climate issues, recently at the 4th Agribusiness Development Forum.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijani grain farms still depend heavily on imports of elite seeds, pesticides, phosphate, and various other fertilisers. Fluctuations in global prices for these inputs also impact the sector’s profitability.

Despite challenges, Azerbaijan is committed to reducing its dependence on global grain price fluctuations, which pose risks to the country’s food security. To achieve this, the government is focusing on shifting from extensive farming methods to intensive technologies aimed at boosting grain productivity. The republic has long prioritised expanding specialised, technically equipped grain farms with efficient irrigation and high commercial wheat output.

Under a series of presidential decrees, farms employing modern irrigation systems receive agricultural subsidies. Additionally, the Agency for Agrarian Credit and Development (AKIA) is authorised to provide state guarantees on loans and subsidise interest for purchasing modern irrigation equipment. These initiatives, combined with grain sowing on demined lands in the Karabakh and East Zangezur economic regions, are helping to expand grain-growing areas.

This year, subsidies of 400 manats ($236) and 140 manats ($83) were paid for grain sowing on liberated territories with and without modern irrigation systems, respectively. In other regions, farmers received subsidies of 290 manats ($171) and 230 manats ($136).

Subsidies and other government support have contributed to the growth of grain-producing farms and agro-parks; however, unpredictable weather conditions sometimes hinder wheat production from increasing at the desired pace. This was evident in 2024, when yields were affected and the harvest schedule shifted to the second half of June. Nevertheless, last year, nearly 3.277 million tonnes of grains and pulses were harvested from 1.021 million hectares—an increase of 0.9%.

Between April and May 2025, heavy rains, mudflows, and strong winds were observed, while June’s rainfall coincided with the ripening period of the grain ears. Such intense precipitation combined with low temperatures created ideal conditions for the rapid growth of wild plants and weeds. This year’s June weather also delayed the start of the winter crop harvest by about ten days. 

According to data published on June 17 by the Ministry of Agriculture, harvesting is now complete on 21% of arable land, with 631,824 tonnes of winter crops collected from 196,064 hectares. The current average grain yield stands at 3.22 tonnes per hectare (32.2 centners/ha), slightly higher than last year. The initial harvest focused on barley fields covering 426,623 hectares in lowland areas, where 42.5% of sowing areas across 43 districts have been harvested.

Barley harvesting is nearing completion in the Jalilabad, Barda, Neftchala, Salyan, and Yevlakh districts, where 90% of the crop has been gathered; harvesting will then begin in the foothill regions. Starting from the third decade of June, the harvest of winter wheat will commence, covering nearly 505,700 hectares of sown area. From late July through August, the harvesting of spring wheat, oats, rye, and maize will take place, with the harvest of legumes concluding in September.

It remains to be hoped that agronomic measures and favourable weather at the end of summer will enable domestic farmers to repeat the successes of 2018 and 2019, when record grain harvests of 3.3 and 3.4 million tonnes were gathered, respectively.