Iran war could push 30 million into poverty, UNDP chief warns

More than 30 million people risk being driven back into poverty due to the economic fallout from the ongoing Iran war, Alexander De Croo said on April 23, citing disruptions to global fuel and fertiliser supplies at a critical moment for agriculture.

Speaking to Reuters, the head of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) warned that fertiliser shortages—exacerbated by blocked cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—have already reduced agricultural productivity. This, he said, is expected to impact crop yields later in the year.

"Food insecurity will be at its peak level in a few months - and there is not much that you can do about it," he said, pointing to broader consequences of the crisis, including energy shortages and declining remittances.

"Even if the war would stop tomorrow, those effects, you already have them, and they will be pushing back more than 30 million people into poverty," he added.

A significant share of the world’s fertilizer production is concentrated in the Middle East, with roughly one-third of global supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions between Iran and the United States have intensified.

Earlier this month, institutions including the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and the World Food Programme warned that the conflict is likely to drive up food prices, placing additional strain on vulnerable populations worldwide.

De Croo said the knock-on effects of the war have already erased an estimated 0.5% to 0.8% of global GDP.

"Things that take decades to build up, it takes eight weeks of war to destroy them," he said.

The crisis is also putting pressure on humanitarian operations, as funding declines while needs increase in regions already facing acute emergencies, including Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine.

"We will have to say to certain people, really sorry, but we can't help you," he said. "People who would be surviving on help will not have this and will be pushed into even greater vulnerability."

By Sabina Mammadli