Is China long-awaited peace promoter in Ukraine? Seeking peace prospects in war-torn country

On April 26, 2023, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke by phone in their first known conversation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Beijing ramps up efforts to position itself as a potential peacemaker in the grinding conflict. During the phone conversation, Xi Jinping reiterated that Beijing would focus on promoting Ukraine-Russia peace talks. As such, Beijing would make efforts for a cease-fire to be reached as soon as possible in order to end what China called a "crisis" rather than a conflict.

The two leaders probably exchanged their views on the situation without making any harsh statements. It would be reckless to expect that any meaningful agreement could be reached during such a conversation. Nevertheless, China attempts to boost its image as the only non-regional actor maintaining dialogue with Kyiv and Moscow. From the very beginning of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China’s position was officially neutral and balanced, though demonstratively signed new cooperation agreements with high-level official visits.

Moreover, Beijing neither condemned Russia’s aggression nor voted for the relevant UN General Assembly resolutions. China has outlined a proposal for peace in Ukraine, but it remains vague, and the United States has dismissed it as opening the path for Russia to keep territories it has seized.

Since the invasion unfolded, Russia's tactical losses on the ground and mounting human casualties forced Moscow to seek Chinese military assistance to restore the balance in the frontline, though unsuccessfully. Although the Beijing-Moscow axis is strictly anti-Western, China prefers to abstain from direct confrontation with the West by supplying Moscow militarily.

However, President Zelenskyy positively assessed the phone conversation with Xin Jinping, stating that “it would give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relationship". In the meantime, the timing of the call - and China’s decision to send emissaries to Ukraine - has triggered many speculations among political and defence analysts, particularly as Ukraine is widely known to be preparing to launch a large-scale counter-offensive against Russian forces in a bid to retake territory in the east and south.

Considering such speculations, one may suggest that China is attempting to persuade Ukraine to halt the counter-offensive, at least for a while and get more time for peace talks with Russia. For Ukrainian experts, the timing of the Zelenskyy-Jinping call was surprising, as many anticipated China would intervene only in the post-counter attack of Ukraine.

Beijing's aspiration for peace in Ukraine could depend on the results of the counter-offensive operation in Kyiv. In the case of Beijing, the problem stems from the fact that it has refused to condemn the invasion fact, which automatically triggered anti-Chinese sentiments in the West, including Ukraine.

Xi's government has pursued a bigger role in global diplomacy as part of a campaign to restore China to what the ruling Communist Party sees as its rightful status as a political and economic leader and to build an international order favouring Beijing's interests. That is a sharp reversal after decades of avoiding involvement in other countries' conflicts and most international affairs while it focused on economic development at home.

From a Western point of view, China cannot be a mediator in the war in Ukraine as it leans too much toward Russia, but it could play the role of facilitator to reach a peace deal with Moscow. Surprisingly for Beijing, the Russian authorities are doubtful that there is any “prospect” for China to mediate the Ukraine conflict, even though earlier welcomed the initiative. Many still are generally sceptical about China's positioning of itself as a mediator and its ability to help bring an end to the war, questioning how much sway Beijing has over Moscow. Also, at this stage, Beijing does not understand the roots of this conflict and has limited vision.

Besides, China’s growing enthusiasm for the peace mediation in Ukraine might push Russia into scepticism regarding Beijing's real intentions; Vladimir Putin might suspect Beijing of going behind his back to agree on something with Zelenskyy and the West. Also, the conversation shows that China sees Ukraine as an independent state, contradicting Russia’s narrative that Ukraine is not a sovereign state.

China's peace mediation efforts in Ukraine are yet to yield results, as there is still a way for Moscow and Kyiv to handle them before starting formal negotiations. Moreover, Beijing's peace plan does not constitute an emergency for Kyiv ahead of the upcoming counter-military operation against Russia. However, Kyiv might turn to China for a potential mediator/facilitator role in the post-counter offensive period.