Is Moscow going to force Armenia to peace? Matanat Nasibova's opinion

The current intensification of the international actors regarding the Armenian-Azerbaijani agenda, in addition to creating certain preconditions for the establishment of peace in the region, is forcing the mediators between Baku and Yerevan to somehow reveal the aspects of their foreign policy in the South Caucasus.

Particularly revealing in this regard is Russia's position, which not only closely monitors the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations with the participation of the United States and the EU, but also sends a very strong message to Yerevan as its main overlord. Moscow's dissatisfaction with Armenia's pro-Western policy is manifested primarily in the fairly logical and reasoned statements of the Russian Foreign Ministry, which reminds Yerevan, in particular, of the fact that the trilateral agreements between the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia have no alternative and are therefore subject to mandatory implementation. In general, Russia is trying to restore to the Armenian authorities and society as a whole the sense of reality that they have lost. On the other hand, Russia is trying to convince Armenia that its Western aspirations are in vain, as they say, never swap horses while crossing the stream.

The Russian side's concerns about Yerevan's pivot towards the West are obvious, although so far everything remains at the level of exclusively Armenian dreams, without any response from Washington or Brussels. Armenia has long agreed to be a vassal of both the US and the EU in the South Caucasus, but the fact is that Western gentlemen are well aware that Armenia is a white elephant. The Russian Foreign Ministry from time to time reminds Armenia of its screw-ups, in particular, related to the CSTO and other manifestations of anti-Russian hysteria. Recently, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova at a weekly briefing harshly stated that Moscow considers public criticism of the CSTO by official Yerevan as counterproductive and expressed bewilderment over the Armenian leadership's desire "to discuss the organization's effectiveness beyond its own borders," because Armenia has long resented the CSTO's actions, or rather "inaction" regarding the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. According to Yerevan, the military bloc was simply obliged to side with Armenia since it is a member of CSTO.

Zakharova's remark apparently referred to Pashinyan's recent revelations at a meeting with representatives of the Armenian community in Prague, where he claimed that the CSTO has done nothing for Armenians, at least for the past two years.

That is, the Armenian society, as recent events show, does not want to accept the fact that Yerevan has never achieved a "political assessment of the Azerbaijani aggression in September 2022" from the CSTO. Which is pretty much a direct reproach to Moscow. Armenia cannot admit the fact that Azerbaijan enjoys the support and respect of the countries of the military bloc, of which it is not a member. At the same time, Russia is giving Armenia a chance to rehabilitate itself, namely to deploy a CSTO mission on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Yerevan has been known to object to this, but now it has unwittingly shown Moscow a trump card: in Prague, Pashinyan shocked Europe by claiming that the presence of an EU mission on Armenian territory does not provide any security guarantees and can even create challenges in the region.

It is difficult to understand what motivated the Armenian prime minister in making such a statement, but there was no doubt that this would not go unnoticed by Moscow. And Russia, represented by Zakharova, reacted as expected. It is possible that Russia has already made an unambiguous decision on the deployment of the CSTO mission on the notional Armenian-Azerbaijani border and may present Armenia with a fait accompli during the upcoming talks in Moscow.

On the other hand, given Moscow's main thesis that the normalisation of relations between Baku and Yerevan is possible on the basis of the Trilateral Statement of November 2020, Russia could, if it wished, force Armenia to fulfil its obligations under the agreements reached at the highest level, using appropriate levers of pressure. However, the Russian side has so far limited itself to verbal statements to Yerevan, which is not conducive to substantive progress in the negotiation process and the achievement of a peace agreement.

On the other hand, Russia strongly disagrees with the US position that Armenia and Azerbaijan have made significant progress towards signing a peace agreement. This is confirmed by Zakharova's words that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's statements are discordant with the comments of the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides.

"While there has been progress on a number of articles of the peace treaty, there have also been persistent differences in positions on some of the key points of that document," Zakharova said, effectively questioning the effectiveness of the US track negotiations.

It is clear that this message is primarily designed to ensure that Moscow does not intend to lose the region from the orbit of its influence, and more importantly, its interests. Therefore, at a high-level meeting expected to take place soon in Moscow, Russia could press Armenia to bring the conclusion of a peace agreement under the auspices of the Kremlin closer and, secondly, to understand the next steps of Armenia, which, unlike Azerbaijan, has not only not decided on a model for its further development, but has been in a political zugzwang situation for more than two years.