Is Trump handing Beijing strategic edge amid Iran crisis?

As yet another US carrier strike group moves toward the Middle East and F-35 squadrons deploy to the region with refuelling tankers, one might be forgiven to ask whether US President Donald Trump is again allowing the Middle East to eclipse urgent priorities in the Indo-Pacific, which he made a point of highlighting during his presidential campaign.

The act of redirecting military assets toward the Middle East carries significant symbolic weight — a message not missed by either Beijing or America’s Indo-Pacific allies. As a piece from War on the Rocks notes, China has consistently exploited US entanglements in the Middle East, turning each crisis into a strategic advantage. Now, the Trump administration faces a pivotal decision: reduce tensions in the Middle East or let China continue to benefit from Washington’s lack of strategic discipline.

According to the article, both the Biden and Trump administrations’ operations in the Red Sea have illustrated costly overextension with minimal return, weakening cohesion between the US and its European and Arab allies since the October 7 attacks.

A US destroyer deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean for maritime security may, internationally, be perceived as US endorsement of Israel’s campaign in Gaza. China has noticed the reputational costs. “Beijing leverages each perceived misstep to advance its narrative that US leadership is hypocritical, destabilizing, and declining — costs that multiply if the United States intervenes even in defence of vital national interests,” the article explains.

New crisis on the horizon

Overshadowing the Israel-Iran conflict is a looming threat to the Strait of Hormuz. Should Iran move to blockade this vital energy route, the publication suggests Trump would be forced to rethink his current defensive posture.

Beijing, by contrast, has prepared to benefit from such regional disorder. Its military base in Djibouti, regular naval escort missions, and upgraded armed forces position China to project power in “far seas” as part of its strategic vision for a Eurasian continent oriented toward Beijing.

During the Red Sea crisis, the article highlights that China struck deals with the Houthis — to whom it has supplied arms and dual-use goods — to ensure safe passage for Chinese shipping, while the US and UK were left conducting costly strikes.

China’s Middle East playbook fits a larger pattern. As the region’s top oil importer, Beijing gets over 50% of its energy from there. In March 2025, amid worsening nuclear tensions, China joined Russia and Iran for the seventh Maritime Security Belt naval drill in the Gulf of Oman. Although China’s navy likely lacks the ability to replace US forces in a Strait of Hormuz emergency, the article argues that it would gladly let Washington defend global shipping routes — avoiding direct confrontation while safeguarding its energy needs. All the while, it continues to shape the strategic narrative to America’s disadvantage.

New geopolitical front after October 7

The post-October 7 environment has given China another opening to undercut US global leadership. Beijing has long maintained a “friends with benefits” dynamic with Tehran and its proxies — purchasing sanctioned oil and helping build Iran’s advanced weapons capabilities, key for its regional network. As the article points out, China has little reason to object to Washington’s distraction.

Trump’s choices in handling the Israel-Iran conflict will be pivotal in either breaking the cycle of distraction or compounding it. Israel’s strategic aims now appear to go well beyond countering Iran’s nuclear program, and Trump may be enabling Prime Minister Netanyahu’s expansive agenda. Trump must find a way to reconcile his stated desire to end the conflict with the need to avoid a protracted regional war or a destabilized, fragmented Iran.

An Asia-centric approach — promoted by many of Trump’s national security officials and rooted in countering China — depends on limiting US military obligations in the Middle East and pursuing de-escalation there. US actions in the Middle East, still the focal point of American foreign policy for two decades, will influence how China and US allies perceive American resolve in the Indo-Pacific.

The article concludes with a warning, namely that Trump should draw lessons from past experience, including his first term, as "every Middle East crisis that consumes American attention and resources hands Beijing strategic advantages."

By Nazrin Sadigova