Japan’s demographic crisis: Silent threat to national defence

In an insightful piece, Foreign Affairs addresses the growing demographic challenges facing Japan and their significant implications for the country’s national defense. Japan’s record-low birthrate and aging population, compounded by a rapidly shrinking workforce, are reshaping both the country’s societal fabric and its defense strategy. The article highlights that while Japan’s military spending is on the rise, the nation's demographic trends threaten to undermine its defense capabilities and its ability to meet the growing demands of its alliance with the United States.

Japan's demographic crisis is undeniable. In 2024, Japan recorded 1.6 million deaths and 720,988 births, marking the ninth consecutive year of declining birthrates. With a population where 30% are over the age of 65, and projections showing this could rise to 40% by 2070, the impact on Japan's society and economy is profound. One of the most pressing concerns is the country's defense forces, which are already struggling to meet recruitment targets. Japan's military, the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), remains vastly outnumbered by potential adversaries such as China and North Korea, with Japan's forces only a fraction of the size of those of its neighbors.

While the Japanese government has passed a record defense budget, aiming to increase its defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, the country's shrinking and aging population poses a major roadblock. Even though Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is determined to bolster Japan's security capabilities and take on a more equal role in its military alliance with the U.S., demographic issues may restrict Japan’s ability to develop the necessary human and financial resources for such ambitions. Despite attempts to encourage a higher birthrate and attract more young people into the military, Japan faces a dire shortage of recruits. Over the last three decades, the population of Japanese 18- to 26-year-olds, the primary target for recruitment, has shrunk by approximately 40%. As a result, the country may need to recruit more than 1% of its entire population—a near-impossible task.

This demographic problem is not unique to Japan. Other countries, such as South Korea, Ukraine, and even the United States, are facing similar challenges. The article suggests that Japan's situation could be a harbinger for other U.S. allies with declining fertility rates. The article highlights the critical need for Japan to address the recruitment issue or risk its military being underprepared for future security threats.

Furthermore, Japan’s defense budget is increasingly strained by social welfare demands, with a large portion allocated to healthcare and pensions for an aging population. The lack of a significant economic rebound over the past few decades only exacerbates the problem. With fewer workers and a shrinking tax base, Japan’s ability to fund its defense initiatives is limited.

The solution, as the article suggests, is clear but improbable: Japan needs more children to ensure a sustainable workforce, military, and taxpayer base. Yet, this simple solution is entangled in complex societal norms and economic challenges. Few government policies have effectively addressed these issues, and while efforts have been made to support families, the nation continues to struggle with the broader challenge of balancing work and family life.

By Vugar Khalilov