Latvia intelligence: No quick peace likely in Russia–Ukraine war

Latvia’s Military Intelligence and Security Service (VDD) has assessed the prospects for ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as unfavourable for a swift peace agreement.

A temporary ceasefire, if achieved, would likely be used by Russia to regroup and prepare for new offensives, Caliber.Az reports, citing Delfi.

The pace of Russian troop advances remains insufficient to achieve the Kremlin’s initial objectives of forcing Ukraine to capitulate, the report notes.

In 2026, Russia is expected to focus on consolidating full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions while attempting to maintain dominance over other territories to weaken Ukraine militarily, politically, and economically.

The VDD believes the Kremlin is deliberately prolonging peace negotiations, counting on being able to continue military operations longer than Kyiv.

Current force balances prevent either side from achieving rapid territorial gains or compelling significant concessions from the opponent.

The report also highlights challenges facing the Russian military in offensive operations, including slow accumulation of infantry behind enemy lines and limited capacity to increase troop numbers under voluntary conscription.

Any substantial reinforcement of forces in Ukraine would require partial or full mobilisation, according to Latvian intelligence.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov