Macron takes center stage, hosts high-stakes conference on Ukraine amid global turmoil

The unprovoked and unwarranted Russian military aggression against Ukraine persists, now entering its third year, underscored by Ukraine's recent territorial losses. Kyiv attributes the current setbacks to the West's inconsistent strategies and inability to fulfill commitments to collectively prevent the Kremlin's territorial advancements, often justified by an array of pretexts. Yet, there seem to be no promising solutions in sight. Ukraine has consistently urged Western nations to break free from inertia and arm the country, currently under advancing Russian assault, with weaponry, missiles, and aircraft to terminate the encroachment on its sovereign territories.

The unified West has responded to the military hostility in diverse ways, delaying the provision of armaments and munitions due to a myriad of reasons that span from internal discontent to the aversion of provoking Moscow's ire. The West to weaken Russia is now facing to meet Ukraine’s challenges by violating sanctions against Russia.

The focus of the war in Ukraine is shifting away from the initial military and political objectives set by the West, according to experts. Even so, there seems to be a lack of response from Western political leaders regarding the possibility of Russia facing a military loss. The strategic objectives and preferences of Western nations in the Ukrainian crisis could be open to revision.

In light of the ongoing Russian invasion, France's President Emmanuel Macron convened a global conference on February 26 to bolster support for Ukraine in concert with European leaders. With several leaders and ministers in presence to explore potential avenues for boosting collaborative efforts in Ukraine's favor, the turnout heralded no breakthrough is in sight for months to come.

Polish President Andrzej Duda at the conference emphasized the need for all-out assistance for Ukraine since the Eastern European nations have been grappling with mounting pressure on their eastern borders, compounded by a lack of ammunition and stalled Western military aid. With the election fever gathering pace in the USA, the Congress has yet to endorse new funds for military aid to Kyiv though President Joe Biden remains optimistic that this approval will eventually be granted.

There has been a growing opinion among Western analysts that the military and political actions taken by the US and NATO against Russia in light of the Ukraine conflict have been unsuccessful. It is believed that a crucial mistake was made by the US and its allies in allowing the situation in Ukraine to worsen. The current state of affairs suggests that NATO's strategists may have underestimated the possible consequences of the conflict.

The Paris-based gathering offered an opportunity for the leaders present to reaffirm their unity as well as their determination to defeat the war of aggression waged by Russia in Ukraine. This also underscores Macron's zeal to position himself as a staunch European advocate for Ukraine's plight, amid rising concerns over the potential dwindling of aid in the forthcoming years.

The United States and its allies committed a grave error by cutting back on military assistance to Kyiv at a pivotal juncture in the conflict. This unfortunate choice occurred just as Ukrainian forces were achieving notable progress on the battlefield. As a result of this decision, the Ukrainian army found themselves lacking the necessary resources and were unable to sustain their forward momentum. This setback forced them to shift to a defensive strategy, ultimately causing the significant gains made by Ukrainian forces to diminish in importance.

Moreover, a significant mistake was made in the misguided strategy of the United States and its allies in dealing with Russia. NATO experts had wrongly assumed that Russia would not be capable of sustaining a long-term conflict in Ukraine, leading to flawed decisions. It has now become clear that these assessments were flawed and lacked proper scrutiny. Instead of diminishing Russia's power, the conflict in Ukraine has placed a heavy burden on Western nations.

France promises unwavering support for Ukraine, assures Macron

French President Emmanuel Macron warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin early Saturday not to "count on any fatigue from Europeans" over the war in Ukraine, pledging that Paris's support for Kyiv "will not waver".

“Battered and bruised, but still standing. Ukraine is fighting for itself, for its ideals, for our Europe. Our commitment at its side will not waver," he tweeted.

A statement released by Macron's office emphasized the EU’s backing for Kyiv, which includes providing aid to refugees, offering both civil and military assistance, and imposing sanctions on Moscow. The statement also warned President Putin that Russia should not expect any leniency from Europeans.

France reiterated its dedication to supporting Ukraine in various ways, such as supplying military equipment, collaborating with defense industries, training, sharing intelligence, and providing civilian aid. The outcome of the conflict was described as crucial for European interests, values, and security.

This declaration of support from France coincided with other key allies of Ukraine reaffirming their commitment to assisting Kyiv. US President Joe Biden announced over 500 new sanctions against Russia, pledging ongoing pressure to halt President Putin's aggressive actions. The sanctions, described as the largest single tranche since the start of the war, also seek to impose a cost for the death last week in a Siberian prison of Putin's most vocal critic, Alexei Navalny.

Britain, meanwhile, announced a new £245 million ($311 million) defense package to help boost the production of "urgently needed artillery ammunition" for Ukraine, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak insisting in an earlier statement that "tyranny will never triumph".

The hosting of the conference on Ukraine with a low turnout of European leaders happened at a time when the USA was in the grip of upcoming election fever. Experts believe hosting a conference on Ukraine allows Macron to bolster France's international standing and reputation as a diplomatic actor. By taking proactive steps to address the conflict, Macron may enhance France's influence within European and global diplomatic circles.

Dwindling Western military aid amid French zeal to take central stage

Macron sought to position France as a key player in European diplomacy, particularly regarding issues that directly affect European security, and by taking the initiative to host the conference on Ukraine, he demonstrated leadership and a willingness to engage in diplomatic efforts to address the conflict though insufficient outcomes.

Macron's decision to host a conference on Ukraine was also influenced by the broader political context, including the upcoming elections in the USA and the United Kingdom's efforts to assert its leadership role post-Brexit. By taking proactive steps on the international stage, Macron sought to position France as a key player in shaping global affairs despite the distractions or shifts in focus of other major powers.

Overall, Macron sought to reflect a combination of strategic, diplomatic, and geopolitical considerations aimed at addressing the conflict, asserting French leadership, and promoting European security and stability.

The United States and other Western countries have struggled to effectively impose sanctions on Russia. The Kremlin has managed to deflect negative attention away from the repercussions of these sanctions.

Moreover, internal disputes within Western nations have unintentionally helped Russia evade these sanctions. Despite certain countries taking the initiative to impose sanctions on Russia, there have been clandestine economic and trade dealings with the Kremlin through covert channels.

While it was expected that Russia would suffer severe financial setbacks due to the sanctions, the violation of these sanctions by Western nations, motivated by personal interests, has bolstered the Kremlin's annual income. It seems that the US and Western countries, initially aiming to entrap Russia in a prolonged conflict, have inadvertently entangled Ukraine in a series of disastrous events.

Additionally, Western nations are hesitant to bear the financial burden of the Ukrainian conflict and are employing various strategies to shift this responsibility onto each other. The European Union has pledged to provide Ukraine with 50 billion euros over the next four years but acknowledges that this amount falls short of meeting Ukraine's military needs annually. There are uncertainties surrounding the United States' ability to allocate funds for military aid to Ukraine in the upcoming year. The $60 billion aid package that the Ukrainian government was anticipating is currently stalled in the US Congress.

Republican lawmakers are pushing for Ukraine to receive financial aid through loans or by granting exploitation rights to their natural resources. This could lead to Ukraine accumulating a significant amount of debt as they continue to fight against Russian aggression on behalf of the West. The Ukrainian government has come to realize the dire situation they are facing, acknowledging that relying solely on the support of the USA and the West is unrealistic.

As a result, Kyiv is now focused on finding a way forward that relies on the strength of the Ukrainian people and military. The current administration under Zelenskyy is finding it challenging to address the situation without directly accusing the US and the West of the destruction in Ukraine. There is now an underlying conflict between the USA and the West due to Ukraine cutting off aid that was promised to them.

Kyiv is no longer satisfied with just condemning the US and the West; they are now demanding that promises made before the war be fulfilled. This conflict has the potential to escalate shortly. Additionally, the abandonment of Ukraine by the USA and the West has sparked unrest among the Ukrainian diaspora in Western countries. Ukrainians abroad have been protesting in European nations, rallying for support for their homeland.

On the other hand, citizens of European nations have also begun protesting against Ukraine, raising concerns about the possibility of a new war in Europe. The situation is delicate and could lead to open conflicts within European countries if not addressed properly.