Media: Europe prepares for harshest winter since 2022 amid energy woes

Europe is set to experience its coldest winter since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with energy prices expected to soar as the continent taps into its gas reserves at a faster-than-usual rate.

According to data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, compiled by Bloomberg, temperatures are expected to remain consistently lower than in the past two winters between now and March, which will likely drive heating demand to its highest level since the war began, Caliber.Az reports.

However, the forecaster noted that, like the previous two winters, temperatures will remain above seasonal norms this winter. Despite this, Europe’s energy infrastructure remains vulnerable to weather disruptions, and a prolonged cold spell could further strain already elevated gas and power prices.

The situation could worsen from January 1, when gas flows through Ukraine may cease, coinciding with the typically coldest period of the year. Already, freezing weather and low-wind conditions have resulted in faster-than-usual withdrawals from gas storage sites, raising concerns about restocking in late winter and into next summer.

Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at Atmospheric G2, explained that any significant cold spell could be linked to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event, which weakens the polar vortex, a phenomenon that typically keeps colder conditions confined to the Earth’s poles.

"We are currently closely monitoring the November pattern, as it is looking more in line with those of winters that did have an SSW eventually," Pedrini said. "That may ‘slightly’ increase the odds of such an event later this winter," he added.

Maxar Technologies expects milder conditions for northern and Central Europe, with any colder temperatures expected to be focused mainly on southern regions such as Italy and the Balkans, according to meteorologist Matthew Dross.

Previously, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced plans to reduce the volume of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the European market. Speaking during a European Parliament session, she emphasized that this move could help lower energy costs while encouraging further investment in green energy.

Von der Leyen stressed the EU's commitment to decreasing its reliance on Russian energy supplies, which remains a challenge as LNG imports from Russia reached record levels in 2024. Despite a two-year ban on Russian crude oil, super-chilled gas continues to flow into Europe, reflecting the difficulty of fully severing ties with Russian energy.

Von der Leyen also proposed that the US could play a role in replacing Russian LNG imports to the EU, suggesting increased American exports as a potential solution. This conversation reportedly took place during a phone call with re-elected President Trump.

The EU continues to navigate the balance between energy security and transitioning to greener alternatives.

By Aghakazim Guliyev