Media: Taiwan braces for strategic uncertainty under Trump’s return

The anticipated return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, coupled with his appointment of prominent China hawks like Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Elbridge Colby, has ignited both hope and apprehension in Taiwan.

While some observers see this leadership composition as a signal of continued robust US support for Taiwan, underlying challenges suggest a more precarious reality for the island nation, Caliber.Az reports via Asia Times. 

Lisa Visentin of the Sydney Morning Herald asserts that “Trump has sent an early message to Beijing that Washington is unlikely to abandon Taiwan.” Similarly, the Taipei Times editorial board expressed optimism, suggesting the proposed leadership team “indicates that the US would continue its robust support for Taiwan.” Yet, tensions are already brewing on two major fronts.

Trump has sharply criticized Taiwan’s defence spending, calling for an increase from its current 2.5% of GDP to 10%. Elbridge Colby, the nominated undersecretary of defence for policy, echoed this demand. Such expectations, if enforced, could strain Taiwan’s economy and relations with Washington.

Additionally, Trump’s inclination to rekindle a US-China trade war raises concerns. This scenario could indirectly harm Taiwan, as reduced Chinese revenues from US markets would limit Beijing’s ability to import from regional economies, including Taiwan.

Despite these potential conflicts, Taiwan’s gravest fear lies in a possible recalibration of US strategic priorities under Trump’s leadership.

Taiwan’s status as a US-supported autonomous democracy stems from a Cold War-era policy initiated in 1950. However, Trump’s rejection of the bipartisan internationalist approach may destabilize this long-standing arrangement. His focus on alleged grievances, such as Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance and its perceived freeloading on US military protection, reveals a transactional perspective devoid of ideological or strategic commitment.

“Trump’s thinking about Taiwan is not seemingly based on ideological or strategic visions that make Taiwan’s autonomy valuable to the United States,” said a political analyst. This contrasts starkly with President Joe Biden’s unequivocal statements pledging US military intervention in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

While the inclusion of China hawks in Trump’s administration offers hope to Taiwan, their influence may be overshadowed. Figures like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, both with business interests and views sympathetic to Beijing, could advocate a less confrontational stance.

Ramaswamy has argued that Taiwan’s importance diminishes once the US achieves semiconductor self-sufficiency, while Musk has controversially likened Taiwan’s relationship with China to Hawaii’s relationship with the US federal government.

Compounding these challenges, the hawks’ aggressive tactics risk exacerbating tensions with Beijing. Grand gestures, such as former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, provoked a military escalation rather than deterring China. Analysts warn that such actions could undermine Taiwan’s security by stoking Chinese aggression.

Adding to Taiwan’s uncertainty is the possibility of a sweeping Trump-Xi deal. Trump may abandon strategic leadership in Asia in exchange for Chinese trade concessions, potentially including reduced military support for Taiwan. This would leave Taiwan more vulnerable, with diminished US backing.

Taiwan, long wary of being a “shrimp among whales,” faces an increasingly uncertain future. With Trump’s unpredictable policies and competing influences in his administration, the island must prepare for both heightened demands and the looming risk of being sidelined in favour of US-China rapprochement. As one analyst put it, “The perennial Taiwan fear of being sold out by America is more relevant than ever.”

By Aghakazim Guliyev