Media: Trump’s return forces Europe to weigh alliances, autonomy, defence

As Donald Trump begins his second term as President of the United States, European leaders are taking a pragmatic approach to mitigate potential challenges in trade, defence, and geopolitical alliances.

Despite the unpredictability that characterized Trump’s first term, Europe has adopted a more strategic and proactive stance this time around, Caliber.Az reports via Politico.

On trade, both Brussels and London have spent months preparing for potential conflicts. Officials have developed comprehensive plans, including retaliatory tariffs, to counter any punitive measures against European exports. Trump’s inauguration speech left Europe temporarily relieved as he refrained from announcing immediate tariffs, focusing instead on a broader "America First" trade agenda.

A key element of Trump’s early trade policy is an invitation for Europe to avert a trade war by increasing its purchases of US oil and gas.

“The one thing they can do quickly is buy our oil and gas,” Trump said shortly after his swearing-in.

The European Commission has confirmed it is considering this proposal. “We need to establish contact with them and see how to move forward,” said Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, the Commission's energy spokesperson. “The priority is to have a conversation, to engage early, discuss common interests and then be ready to negotiate.”

Trump’s longstanding criticism of NATO allies for underfunding their defence budgets has found a warmer reception this time. He has proposed raising the NATO defence spending target to 5% of GDP, significantly above the current 2% benchmark, which many European nations still fail to meet.

In response, Estonia and France have expressed support for increased defence spending, echoing sentiments tied to the threat from Russia. An EU official noted, “The fact that we need to do more on defence at [the] EU level is definitely not a novelty and is linked more to Putin and Russia’s threat than to who sits in the White House.”

Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, praised Europe’s preparedness, saying, “They have been quite forward-looking on the defence and security agenda.”

Europe is also preparing to shoulder a larger burden in supporting Ukraine. Leaders, including Britain’s new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, have been working on plans to reassure Trump of Europe’s reliability as a partner.

“Trump is an interests-based politician rather than a values-based politician,” a senior Western official observed. “So you have to appeal to his interests. It won’t be in his interests to look like Putin has won or he’s got a bad deal.”

Leslie Vinjamuri, Americas director at Chatham House, highlighted the stakes for Europe. “At a time of major war on the continent, the stakes for Europe in correctly calibrating its response are greater than [for] any other region in the world. He has shown he remains unpredictable and willing to test the boundaries of US alliances in totally unexpected ways.”

While Europe’s readiness has improved, Trump’s unpredictable nature looms large. Rahman cautioned that Europe’s measured approach depends on Trump’s next moves. “They’ve got many measures that are ready to go, but they’re not going to press fire until they know what Trump is going to do.”

As Europe braces for the potential challenges ahead, its leaders are keenly aware that careful diplomacy and strategic foresight will be critical to navigating the uncertainties of Trump’s second term.

By Aghakazim Guliyev