Media: Ukraine developing two plans to end conflict

At present, Ukrainian officials are operating under two public approaches.

The first, associated with Mr. Trump's running mate J.D. Vance, envisions a situation where the conflict is halted along existing frontlines, with Ukraine compelled to adopt a stance of neutrality. This would occur without clear security assurances or any restrictions placed on Mr. Putin's actions, Caliber.Az report per foreign media.

The second proposal, which Ukraine strongly favours, was outlined by Mike Pompeo, former Secretary of State under Mr. Trump. This plan emphasises increased military and financial assistance as a way to deter Moscow, while keeping the door open for potential NATO membership. Much may depend on which approach Mr. Trump is persuaded to support. A complete betrayal of Ukraine by Mr. Trump seems unlikely, especially given the opinions within his own Republican base.

He would likely avoid becoming the person responsible for Ukraine’s defeat. However, as a pragmatic and transactional politician, Mr. Trump is expected to seek something in return from Ukraine. This could include access to its natural resources, for example, while showing little concern for liberal values. Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s foreign minister during the 2019 "Ukrainegate" scandal, suggests that President Zelenskyy should work to influence the new administration’s thinking while Mr. Trump is still formulating his stance. 

The shift in Washington’s stance comes at a challenging moment for Ukraine’s military. After enduring a year of intense conflict against the Russian offensive, which has come at a tremendous cost to Russia — with over 57,000 Russian casualties just this year — Ukraine has faced its worst month of territorial losses since 2022, losing around 620 square kilometres. While this represents only about one per cent of Ukraine's pre-war territory, it marks a concerning trend. Russia is advancing on multiple fronts, and its momentum appears to be accelerating. 

It seems increasingly likely that Ukraine will soon be forced to retreat from key positions around Kurakhove in Donetsk province, with the potential for a damaging psychological blow as Russian forces might enter neighboring Dnipro province by the end of the year. The greater concern now lies less with the immediate situation at the front lines and more with what it reveals about the broader strains behind them. Amid growing distrust between Ukraine’s military, political leadership, and society, the country is struggling to replace battlefield casualties through conscription, managing to recruit only two-thirds of its target numbers. 

Meanwhile, Russia is replenishing its losses through recruitment and lucrative contracts, avoiding mass mobilization. A senior Ukrainian military officer has acknowledged a significant drop in morale in some of the most challenging sections of the front. According to sources within the general staff, nearly 20 per cent of Ukrainian soldiers have deserted their posts. However, there is no indication that Ukraine’s forces are on the verge of collapsing. For now, they still have enough weapons to continue fighting, and enough ground to retreat to if necessary. 

Additional shipments of American arms are on their way, offering continued support. Meanwhile, Russia faces its own internal challenges, including high inflation, which could cause significant issues in the coming year. But Ukraine may feel the strain first, with some experts predicting the pressure could hit within the next six months.

By Naila Huseynova