Messages from Khojaly, Ukraine's inconsistency, US ex-president's possible life imprisonment Weekly political developments

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Events” show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about the main news of the week related to Azerbaijan and other countries.

AZERBAIJAN - ARMENIA

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev signed the order on “Pardon of several convicted people” on May 25. A total of 154 people were pardoned as part of the amnesty.

The third International Conference on “Mitigating Environmental Impact of Landmines: Resource Mobilisation for Safe and Green Future” was held in liberated Zangilan district.

Presently, more than 10,000 square kilometres of the Azerbaijani territory liberated from occupation are full of mines and unexploded ordnance. More than 3,429 Azerbaijani people, including 358 children and 38 women, have suffered as a result of mine explosions, since 1991.

An important agreement was signed between the Mine Action Agency of the Azerbaijan Republic (ANAMA) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) at the conference. This document lays the foundation for the creation of a Centre of Excellence and Training for Mine Action in Azerbaijan.

The first 44 families of internally displaced people from Khojaly have recently returned to their hometown. By their arrival, about 50 houses had been built in the city.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva and their daughter Arzu Aliyeva arrived to congratulate the Khojaly residents. In a conversation with Khojaly residents, the president also touched upon the normalisation of the Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.

The president again warned the Armenian revanchists about the inadmissibility of attempts to put forward territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

When Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s team faces some risk of losing power and militant statements made by the opposition, this warning sounds relevant.

It is also relevant in another case if Pashinyan resumes militant rhetoric to boost authority amid the rallies.

To strengthen the message, President Aliyev also added that the entire Karabakh and East Zangezur will become a very strong defensive zone.

“The work is already underway here in this sphere for the Azerbaijani people to be always sure that such tragedies will not occur again,” the president was quoted as saying.

There is another important point. The president stated that the Armenian leadership must apologise for the genocide in Khojaly.

“If it doesn’t do this, then I think Armenia itself will never be able to revive,” President Aliyev said, making it clear to Yerevan that full normalisation of relations requires not only the renunciation of territorial claims, but also repentance for crimes.

As for the prospects for the rapid signing of a peace treaty, Pashinyan said that the key principles have been agreed upon, it is necessary to prepare the text of the peace treaty. There is a chance to finish this work as soon as possible.

The Armenian prime minister shows no signs of refusing from the peace agenda.

Meanwhile, the rallies, led by Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, are underway in Yerevan. The rally organisers used famous hits by Queen, and the clergyman tried to stomp to the beat of the music and once even uttered an encouraging cry.

The clergymen want to show that they are modern, close to youth, developing and capable of leading Armenia into the future. The Armenian authorities did not like this performance, and they showed decisiveness by detaining several hundred rally participants.

Among them are MPs from ex-president Robert Kocharyan’s faction, as well as son of former CSTO Secretary General and former Chief of the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces Yuri Khachaturov - Igor Khachaturov.

The arrests are quite demonstrative, designed to show the authorities’ intransigence towards the Karabakh clan. The police are also successfully clearing highways of cars blocking the roads. However, there is still a problem.

Indeed, the protests are not as intensive as they were at the beginning, but they are well organised and quite technologically advanced. Apparently, by blocking the roads, the rally participants are trying to force Pashinyan to negotiate, which will mean increasing the political subjectivity of the “Tavush for the Motherland" movement and its leader Bagrat Galstanyan.

Pashinyan will have to take non-trivial actions, for example, to receive some specific preferences from the European Union to show the advantage of the pro-Western policy of the ruling party.

That’s why, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan had a phone talk with High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell. The sides emphasised the importance of making a final decision on launching a dialogue on visa regime liberalisation.

Georgia

The Georgian parliament, as expected, overcame the veto imposed by Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili on the previously adopted law on the transparency of foreign influence by a majority of votes.

Protests have resumed in Tbilisi, and the opposition parties are beginning to consolidate around Zourabichvili. Some 150 non-governmental organisations said that they would not comply with the registration requirement, while Brussels officials said that Georgia had temporarily lost its opportunity to join the EU.

The situation will be clearer during the elections this autumn. Apparently, the West will use all means, such as sanctions, to discredit the Georgian ruling party before the elections.

UKRAINE - RUSSIA

The Russian army occupied more Ukrainian settlements. However, this is insignificant progress. In general, the offensive, including that in the Kharkiv region, has been suspended.

According to several experts, the Russians will try to organise an offensive in the Sumy region to remove the Ukrainian servicemen from important sectors of the front, in particular, Pokrovsk, former Avdiivka, which would allow Russia to destroy the most important logistics sectors of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have recently hit Russian radar stations in Armavir and Orsk.

These stations demonstrate a big part of the Western Hemisphere from India to the Maghreb, North Africa to detect the launch of missiles, including nuclear ones, towards Russia.

The purpose of the strike, clearly sanctioned by the West, is to demonstrate to Moscow a tough response to its nuclear rhetoric. Ukraine may strike first. Russia will have to remove air defense forces from the front to protect the radar stations.

The F-16 aircraft transferred to Ukraine will be used soon. At the same time, Sweden is transferring a flying radar to Ukraine, which will greatly help these aircraft fight against Russian aviation.

Moreover, Western leaders, one after another, agree to European missile attacks on the Russian targets.

Apparently, the major powers have not yet managed to agree on the basic principles of a ceasefire in Ukraine, and both sides of the global conflict are fighting intensively.

MIDDLE EAST

The Israeli army continues advancing in Rafah and has completely taken control of the border with Egypt, the so-called Philadelphia corridor.

As international pressure on Israel increased, Tel Aviv hit the Rafah refugee camp with a missile. At least 50 civilians died as a result of the fire that followed the strike.

The Israeli side says that the strike was made by a precision-guided missile and targeted a vehicle carrying two Hamas representatives and a nearby fuel tank burst into flames.

This incident will further increase international pressure on Israel.

Amid a growing crisis, US President Joe Biden proposed another truce plan to the sides. The problem for Israel is that although it envisages the post-war restoration of Gaza, it at the same time implies an end to the war, and therefore the safety of Hamas.

Much will depend on the consequences of the closure of the Philadelphia corridor for Hamas. The Israeli side says that Hamas received numerous weapons through tunnels leading to Egypt.

US

There is important news from the US. A jury in New York found US ex-President Donald Trump guilty of falsifying business documents to conceal payments to a former porn actress.

Making this fact public would have threatened the success of Trump's election campaign in 2016. The verdict will be announced on July 11. The maximum sentence could be 136 years.

After leaving the courtroom, Trump told reporters that the jury's verdict was far from the end.

“We will continue fighting, we will fight to the end, and we will win, because our country has turned into hell,” the ex-president said.

Trump's lawyer said that he would appeal the jury's decision.

Of course, Trump has a chance to turn the situation in his favour by using the trial as a pre-election campaign. Moreover, according to some opinion polls, the jury’s verdict on the pornographic case added five per cent to Trump’s popularity.