Military analysts skeptical of Armenia's arms supplies from India, Iran Expert views on Caliber.Az

Armenia does not want to become peaceful and secure; the country's military budget has been increased by more than 50 per cent, and officials in Yerevan are constantly scouring the world for cheap weapons. This was found. It is in India. And in Iran, where kamikaze drones drew the attention of Armenian vengeance seekers. The total destruction of Armenian weapons by Azerbaijan during the 44-day war makes it unlikely that Armenia will be able to restore at least half of its Armed Forces' arsenal. Nonetheless, Azerbaijan must maintain control over this process.

So, how combat-ready are the Indian and Iranian weapons purchased by Armenia, and can they threaten Azerbaijan in principle?

In light of the ongoing tensions in relations with Azerbaijan, Armenia is considering signing new defense contracts with India. During the visit of Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan to this country, an intergovernmental agreement was signed to purchase Indian multiple launch rocket systems Pinaka (Pinaka), anti-tank missile systems Competition, 80-mm mortars, and other weapons. According to media reports, Armenia has also targeted Akash anti-aircraft missile systems and kamikaze unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (loitering munition) developed by private Indian companies Tata Advanced Systems Limited (TASL) and Solar Industries.

Armenia's desire to arm itself is understandable in theory, but it has so far resulted in irony. The country is still isolated, and the decision of its authorities to increase the military budget by such a large amount will undoubtedly be implemented at the expense of the population - it is on their shoulders that the Pashinyan cabinet's costly adventures will fall. The changeable and multifaceted policy of Armenia led to the fact that Moscow decided to trick Yerevan and no longer supply its weapons there. Moreover, for free. Like, It's not up to you, you know, all weapons are thrown into the Ukraine war. Armenian officials wandered into distant India after active tours to various countries. Unlike the Chinese, its weapons are not widely known; instead, the world is familiar with Indian tea, medicines, textiles, films, and cuisine.

So our aggressive neighbour's attempts to reach the level of Azerbaijan in terms of weapons are absolutely unrealistic, because we buy weapons from the best manufacturers - Israel, Türkiye, Russia, Belarus. At the same time, the country is successfully developing its own military production, and aircraft bombs, mortars and UAVs are already being produced. Practically insolvent Armenia cannot do this.

The days of Armenians being confident in their superiority over Russian weapons have passed. It never occurred to them to develop their own military-industrial complex and why should it? Moscow was very generous to them. And now everything has changed. Expensive and high-quality weapons from the leading countries to the Armenian industry are not available in terms of price, so it had to travel across the three seas for relatively cheap, albeit not so excellent quality, Indian weapons.

And yet, what potential does the weapons purchased by Armenia have, can they threaten Azerbaijan? To clarify this issue, Caliber.Az appealed to military experts from Belarus, which closely cooperates with Azerbaijan in the military-technical sphere, in particular, supplying such effective offensive weapons as the Polonaise MLRS. This powerful jet complex is already guarding our country’s borders and has even been successfully tested during the 44-day war.

According to the head of the analytical centre Belarus Security Blog, security specialist Andrey Porotnikov, this is an expected story: Armenia is replenishing the stock of weapons that it lost during the 44-day war. In addition, there is a public demand in Armenia to ensure military security, and similar actions by the authorities. In conversation with Caliber.Az, the Belarusian expert gave his assessment of Indian weapons. The military equipment purchased in India, he points out, has one serious disadvantage - it has not been tested anywhere, has not been used anywhere, and "we know about it only from the manufacturer's statements". Even any field tests, apparently, were not carried out.

 "And in the real conditions of the South Caucasus, where there are highlands and temperature differences, these weapons can behave quite differently and, to put it mildly, demonstrate indicators markedly different from those declared by the manufacturer," the military specialist stressed.

In addition, according to him, there is a problem with the quality of Indian equipment in general.

"Armenia buys Indian weapons because it is the most affordable option for them. If we could, we would buy something more expensive and of higher quality: Russian, European, Israeli... ," - Porotnikov is sure.

As for the Pinaka MLRS specifically, first of all, what can be opposed to it and how it can be eliminated, the expert believes that it can be suppressed, in particular, by fire from a more powerful salvo complex in combination with a reconnaissance and targeting system. And Azerbaijan already has such, in particular Belarusian Polonaises, which, by the way, significantly exceed the potential of Indian MLRS in their indicators.

"These purchases are not yet in the nature of a 'game changer' and will not lead to a change in military balances in the region," Porotnikov emphasised.

Belarusian independent military expert, veteran of border troops, reserve Colonel Leonid Spatkai, gave nearly the same assessment of Indian weapons, which Armenia has enthusiastically purchased and appears to be planning to purchase in the future.

"There is practically no information on Indian weapons, neither about the claimed characteristics, nor about the experience of combat use," he told Caliber.Az.

As for the Iranian drones that Armenia may purchase from Iran, he said, "the design of the Iranian kamikaze drone is extremely primitive".

Spatkai notes that the body of the Iranian drone is "actually pressed paper impregnated with epoxy resin, the screw is wooden, there are no communication systems". At the same time, he also notes the positive aspects of Iranian UAVs. "In the presence of such simple components of the drone body, there are also advantages – it is extremely difficult for air defence and radar systems to detect it. And the price of such ‘toys’ is only $20,000," the specialist points out.

And therefore, Spatkai believes, Armenia, of course, is interested in acquiring these UAVs - cheaply and angrily, instead of one Bayraktar (about $ 4 million), you can buy two or three hundred of these kamikazes," he explains.

The system of protection against such drones, in his opinion, should be built near settlements, and not close to them, because as a result of hitting, "it is possible that they will fall on residential buildings".

According to the expert, Israel has begun to supply detection and protection systems against Iranian drones to Ukraine.

In general, it is easier for Azerbaijan in this sense than for Ukrainians, bearing in mind special friendly relations between Azerbaijan and Israel, which has been repeatedly noted by the Israeli media. That is why the country, which is a leader in the development of weapons technologies in the world, is ready to share its most advanced and secret weapons with Baku.

Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani army is fully equipped with anti-aircraft artillery capable of effectively destroying such kamikaze drones, according to estimates of some Azerbaijani military experts, to whom Caliber.Az posed the same questions. These are ZSU-23-4 "Shilka" systems that do not use sophisticated digital technologies to detect targets, but older-style weapons are more effective in this case. Such systems' mini-radar successfully detects drones such as the Iranian ones, and several anti-aircraft installations of this type can completely close the sky and protect strategic objects from attack.

Experts have noted that recent successfully repulsed attacks by Iranian drones in Ukraine have demonstrated the effectiveness of such operations, with nearly 90% of the Iranian drones involved in the attacks being shot down by Ukrainian air defense. And Turkey and Israel, Azerbaijan's main military partners, can ensure the supply of any weapons to our country in the shortest possible time.