President Aliyev in Albania and Trump's Gulf tour plus Low-Profile Istanbul Talks

The editorial team of Caliber.Az presents the latest episode of the program “Sobitiya” (Events) with Murad Abiyev, featuring a review of the week’s top stories related to Azerbaijan and beyond.

Azerbaijan - Armenia

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev took part in the 6th European Political Community summit, held in Tirana, the capital of Albania. His attendance alone is noteworthy, as Aliyev does not always choose to participate in such gatherings. For instance, he skipped the previous summit in Budapest last November, despite Azerbaijan’s close relations with Hungary. At the time, relations with the EU were strained, as Brussels adopted a patronising tone toward Baku and repeatedly attempted to manipulate Azerbaijan over the now-resolved Karabakh conflict.

However, there are growing indications — and Aliyev’s visit strongly suggests this — that the new leadership in the European Union is willing to reconsider its previously misguided policies. This shift has largely come about thanks to Baku’s firm and principled stance, as Azerbaijan resisted Brussels’ heavy-handed pressure without making a single concession.

Today, Azerbaijan is increasingly seen as a reliable partner in addressing global challenges across the political, energy, and transport sectors. Europe, in particular, has come to feel this most acutely. Despite the strategic energy partnership that links us—through which Azerbaijan supplies vital hydrocarbons—Europe long attempted to downplay our country’s significance. This was done in favor of Brussels’ distorted vision of what constitutes a “just” order in the South Caucasus.

At the same time, Azerbaijan’s establishment of comprehensive strategic partnerships with China, similar agreements with Vietnam and Central Asian countries, as well as its growing political and economic engagement in the Middle East, all point to the country’s geopolitical and geoeconomic self-sufficiency—and to the absence of any unhealthy dependence on the whims of the European Union. In turn, this compels Brussels to build a more respectful and mutually beneficial relationship with Baku—one free from patronising attitudes and attempts at manipulation.

The first sign of Brussels’ changing tone came with the recent visit of EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas to Azerbaijan. Notably, her trip was not part of a broader tour of the South Caucasus—she visited only Baku. Then, on the sidelines of the summit in Tirana, a meeting took place between President Aliyev and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, along with European Council President António Costa. These developments underscore the growing importance of Azerbaijan for the EU. The significance is further reflected in President Aliyev’s bilateral meetings with European leaders during his visit to the Albanian capital.

As we remember, not long ago, the European Union sought to draw dividing lines in the South Caucasus by leveraging its relationship with Armenia. However, the firm and consistent policy of Azerbaijan’s leadership has gradually brought this approach to an end.

In this context, body language speaks volumes. French President Emmanuel Macron—the leader of the very country that has played a central role in promoting Armenia’s destructive agenda—was seen engaged in an animated conversation with President Aliyev in Tirana. The two leaders ended their exchange with a warm, two-handed handshake. While it may be overly optimistic to expect Paris to fully reverse its course, it is reasonable to assume that the Élysée Palace has at least begun to reflect on the futility of continued confrontation with Baku.

Meanwhile, ahead of the summit, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gave a brief interview to Azerbaijani journalists. In it, he once again repeated the same tired talking points—claims that Armenia’s constitution allegedly contains no territorial claims against Azerbaijan, references to supposed guarantees from Armenia’s Constitutional Court, accusations that Azerbaijan’s own constitution contains territorial claims against Armenia, and a declaration of readiness to propose dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group on the day a peace agreement is signed, allegedly to prevent Baku from “transferring the conflict” onto Armenian territory.

This entire bundle of far-fetched arguments, repeated ad nauseam by the Armenian prime minister, can leave any reasonable observer disheartened by their sheer detachment from reality. It's as if you came to play football, and your opponents showed up wielding field hockey sticks.

However, little else could have been expected. Yes, Pashinyan is playing to a domestic audience that is not ready to let go of illusions of national grandeur so quickly. But this, in itself, raises serious concerns. After all, it is precisely this audience that will ultimately decide in a referendum whether they want to be part of building a greater Caucasus community or remain a society of isolated revanchists and outcasts.

Ukraine – Russia

Throughout the past week, there was intense speculation about the upcoming negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul. Finally, the talks took place as expected—but without the participation of the two countries' leaders. After two hours of discussions, both sides agreed on a new large-scale prisoner exchange and committed to drafting and sharing detailed lists outlining their respective visions for a ceasefire agreement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sought to portray Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence as a refusal to end the war, even calling the composition of the Russian delegation “token” or “puppet-like.” This statement prompted a sharp rebuttal from the Russian Foreign Ministry.

However, in this context, Washington’s reaction is even more interesting. Notably, Trump moved quickly—before the Russian and Ukrainian delegations even met—to discredit Zelenskyy’s negotiation strategy. He warned that he expected nothing from the talks and emphasised that everything would ultimately be decided during his own personal meeting with Putin. Moreover, he lavishly praised Russia, calling Russian soldiers brave.

In effect, it seems to me that Trump positioned himself firmly on Putin’s side, seemingly working to steer public discourse away from condemning the Russian leader for his uncooperative stance.

So, the American president no longer hides whose side his sympathies are on. Arguably, this is a strong strategic move. It allows Trump himself to avoid becoming a target for failing to influence Moscow. At the same time, by easing pressure on Russia and thereby diminishing his apparent interest in ending the conflict, Trump cuts off Moscow’s opportunities to manipulate him.

In any case, he leaves it to Russia to wait until the moment it is compelled to turn to Washington. At least, much of the current situation gives this impression. Very soon, we will be able to see whether this is truly the case.

USA – Middle East

The American president is in remarkably good spirits this week. Weary of criticism over what many called ineffective first 100 days in office, he seems determined to hit the jackpot. Trump’s Middle East tour culminated in the signing of agreements worth trillions of dollars—deals that promise to give a significant boost to the U.S. economy.

Consider the numbers: a $142 billion defense contract and an additional $600 billion in investments into the American economy from Saudi Arabia. A $1.2 trillion arms supply contract and a deal to deliver 150 Boeing aircraft to Qatar. An agreement for nearly $1.5 trillion in investments from the United Arab Emirates, plus an extra $200 billion in supplementary deals with the UAE.

All these agreements include investments in high-tech research and manufacturing on American soil.

Additionally, in Riyadh, Trump met with Syrian leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa and confirmed the lifting of sanctions on Syria—effectively tying this move to the condition that Syria would eventually join the Abraham Accords and assist the U.S. in preventing the resurgence of ISIS. Al-Sharaa, in turn, invited American companies to invest in Syria’s oil and gas sectors.

Meanwhile, Trump conspicuously avoided visiting Israel and has effectively ceased direct communication with Netanyahu. However, the strained relations with the Israeli prime minister do not signal a break with Israel itself. Rather, Trump aims to demonstrate that he can advance Israel’s interests independently, without the involvement of the obstinate Israeli leader—and crucially, on terms and to a degree he deems appropriate.

Israel remains a strategic ally for Washington, just as the Gulf monarchies do, both playing essential roles in maintaining the balance of power in which America holds the leading position.