New video claims mass production of Shahed drones in Russia Aerial swarm over Ukraine?

Newly circulated video footage on Russian military Telegram channels allegedly reveals the mass production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones within Russia.

The video, likely showcasing a facility in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, references "Shoigu's Greenhouse," hinting at Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the purported expansion of drone production, Caliber.Az writes, referring to Forbes.

The Shahed drones, colloquially known as “mopeds”, have become synonymous with nightly attacks on Ukraine. Recent statistics indicate that Ukrainian defences successfully intercepted 18 out of 22 incoming drones during the latest assault. These aerial vehicles boast an eight-foot wingspan, cruise at around 100 mph, and carry a warhead with approximately 100 pounds of explosives. Primarily targeting electrical substations and transformers, Shahed drones have been responsible for over 4,400 documented attacks since September 2022.

Footage of the localized production of kamikaze drones Shahed-136 aka "Geran-2" in Russia.
Video from https://t.co/6Tw95VV92z pic.twitter.com/CMcKN2IIB4

— Yuri Lyamin (@imp_navigator) March 5, 2024

The video displays rows of Shahed bodies, including both the standard white version and a newer, stealthier black variant. Approximately 100 Shahed bodies are visible, with workers seemingly assembling components, suggesting an ambitious production scale.

However, analysts caution against assuming an imminent rise in drone attacks. The displayed drone bodies may be the easiest part to mass-produce while sourcing more complex components, particularly electronics, could prove challenging. Previous assessments reveal heavy reliance on imported electronics, raising questions about the sustainability of the production process.

While the Alabuga facility aims to produce over 1,600 Shaheds a month, it remains unclear how many Russia can actually produce, especially considering the intricate components required for functional drones. Ukrainian intelligence estimates Russian capacity at 300-350 Shaheds per month, consistent with recent attack numbers.

Despite the grand display in the video, the actual operational impact of increased production remains uncertain. The decrease in Shahed attacks over recent months contrasts expectations of a steady increase. Ukrainian forces continue to monitor the situation closely, evaluating whether the showcased production is a genuine strategic effort or a potential financial endeavour targeting the Ministry of Defence.

The situation warrants close attention as both sides assess the implications of the purported Shahed drone production increase.