Belarus restricts fuel supplies to Russia despite worsening energy crisis

Belarus is limiting fuel exports to Russia despite the latter’s escalating fuel crisis, prioritizing more profitable international markets over aiding its embattled ally, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) stated.

The SVR highlights that Russia is grappling with a severe gasoline shortage, which has forced regional authorities to reintroduce fuel rationing through coupons. Since early August, wholesale gasoline prices in Russia have surged by 8%, and despite an official ban on fuel exports, the domestic market remains volatile and undersupplied, Caliber.Az reports, citing Ukrainian media.

“Belarus, which could partially compensate for the deficit, is acting cautiously,” the agency stated, noting that Minsk is reluctant to divert significant volumes of fuel to Russia.

According to intelligence assessments, demand for Belarusian petroleum products in Russia increased notably in the second half of August. However, Belarusian refineries operate under limited capacity, producing only 3–4 million tons of gasoline annually. Of that, around 2 million tons are consumed domestically, leaving little surplus to meet Russia’s monthly demand of approximately 3 million tons.

Beyond logistical constraints, economic considerations also factor heavily into Minsk’s decision. Belarus can command significantly higher prices for its fuel on the global market—ranging from $1,300 to $1,900 per ton in China, India, and African nations—compared to less than $1,000 per tonne offered in Russia. As a result, exporting to Moscow is seen as financially unviable.

The SVR further noted that during Russia’s last major fuel crisis in March 2024, Belarus exported a mere 3,000 tons of gasoline to its neighbor—just 0.1% of Russia’s monthly requirement—demonstrating Minsk’s consistent reluctance to offset Moscow’s fuel shortages.

International analysts have linked Russia’s current energy shortfall to a series of targeted Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, which have triggered record-high wholesale fuel prices and led to acute shortages across multiple regions in the Russian Federation.

By Vafa Guliyeva