NYT: Beyond trade war, China’s Xi seeks Trump’s assurance on Taiwan

China’s President Xi Jinping is expected to use his upcoming meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to pursue a goal that goes beyond trade tensions — securing a clearer American position on Taiwan.

While Trump has insisted that discussions in South Korea will focus primarily on trade, Beijing sees the talks as a chance to test whether Washington’s long-standing support for Taiwan might be softened, The New York Times writes. 

Analysts say Xi will likely seek a statement from Trump that the United States “does not support independence for Taiwan,” a formulation that would echo earlier U.S. administrations but would still be seen as a diplomatic win for Beijing.

“Once something is said that helps China’s case, it treats that as the new base line,” said David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “They would try to lock in all successors to that precedent.”

The meeting in South Korea may serve as a prelude to a larger summit between the two leaders. Trump has signalled plans to visit China early next year and to later host Xi in the United States.

“The Chinese probably do see a sequencing: that they want some kind of cease-fire in the trade war and a de-escalation to start, and then they want to open up the larger geostrategic issues,”  Sacks said. “I think Taiwan is the centre of that.”

Since taking office this year, Trump has scaled back certain interactions with Taiwan — moves welcomed in Beijing. Washington barred Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te from making a stopover visit in New York and downgraded defence talks, relocating them from Washington to Alaska.

“What they see is the potential for U.S. commitments to Taiwan to weaken over time because of the shift in balance of power that they believe increasingly advantages China,” said Amanda Hsiao of the Eurasia Group.

Trump, who has criticised Taiwan’s defence spending and dominance in the semiconductor industry, has also alternated between questioning the island’s resilience and touting U.S. deterrence power. “The United States is the strongest military power in the world by far, it’s not even close,” he said during a news conference. “Nobody’s going to mess with that.”

Still, observers note that a statement mirroring President Clinton’s 1998 remarks in Beijing could help ease broader trade negotiations. “For Xi, it’s critically important that Donald Trump at least communicates that he understands the Chinese position,” said Rorry Daniels of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Taiwan’s foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung, has sought to play down concerns. “We are in close communication with the U.S. side, and their interactions with China won’t harm Taiwan,” he told legislators.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also dismissed speculation of any trade-off involving Taiwan. “No one is contemplating that,” he told reporters on Saturday while in the Middle East.

By Aghakazim Guliyev