Pakistani visit to Washington: Seeking to press reset button

Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir is expected in Washington this week amid the unsettled US-Pakistan relationship ever since the 2021 Taliban takeover in Afghanistan and intensified political turmoil in Pakistan, with crackdowns on the opposition, as well as the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. While Munir is believed to aim to address shared concerns about Afghanistan-based terrorist groups, particularly the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the US administration wants to shift its focus away from security issues towards trade and investment, hoping to stabilize Pakistan's economy. The Foreign Policy journal highlights potential areas of common ground in the course of this meeting, such as non-security issues in Afghanistan and the delivery of humanitarian aid. Caliber.Az reprints this article.

"Pakistani Army chief Asim Munir is visiting Washington this week, at a time when the US-Pakistan relationship is unsettled. Bilateral ties are relatively stable and crisis-free, but the future is uncertain: Washington and Islamabad have struggled to find new anchors for their partnership since US forces left Afghanistan in 2021. A visit from the leader of Pakistan’s powerful military offers opportunities for a reset, but policy divergences may make that difficult.

Munir is different from his immediate predecessors in the army chief role. He doesn’t come from a military family, and he is not an alum of the prestigious Pakistan Military Academy in Abbottabad. He also has few known links to the West, unlike many Pakistani generals who attended US or British training academies and may have family there. Finally, Munir is deeply religious, and he says little publicly.

However, Munir is a soldier to the core. He was born in Rawalpindi, home to Pakistan’s military headquarters, and he quickly rose through the ranks. Like many previous Pakistani Army chiefs, he seeks friendly relations with Washington. In his nearly 13 months in the role, he has met twice in Rawalpindi with Michael Kurilla, the commander of US Central Command, and has spoken twice by phone with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

Munir is motivated by precedent. Thanks to a legacy of education and training exchanges between the United States and Pakistan, officer-to-officer relations have long been warm—despite tensions over issues such as the Pakistani Army’s support for some terrorist groups. But Munir is also practical: Pakistan’s economy is in crisis, and the United States is its top export destination and a key source of aid.

Munir also wants to tap into shared concerns about Afghanistan-based terrorist groups to help address a resurgence of militancy in Pakistan, led by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan [TTP]. On Tuesday, an attack by a TTP affiliate killed 23 troops in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. However, the top US security concern in Afghanistan is Islamic State-Khorasan [IS-K], and in recent months, US officials acknowledged that Taliban operations have reduced the IS-K threat, suggesting the United States has less of an incentive to partner with Pakistan.

During Munir’s visit, he and his US interlocutors may find common ground on non-security issues in Afghanistan, such as the delivery of humanitarian aid. Another major US concern is Pakistan’s recent decision to expel 1.7 million undocumented Afghans. The Biden administration wants to ensure that those waiting for special immigration visas to the United States—including many people who worked with the US military—won’t end up back in Afghanistan.

The Biden administration wants to shift the focus of the US-Pakistan relationship away from Afghanistan and security issues and toward trade and investment. Because Pakistan’s military chiefs exert outsized influence over public policy, Munir may bring these issues up himself; he is directly involved in economic recovery efforts. But for Washington, commercial cooperation won’t be a realistic anchor for partnership until Islamabad’s economy is more stable.

Because Munir is meeting US military and security officials, global conflicts are likely on the agenda. The Biden administration will want to hear from Munir on Russia’s war in Ukraine—multiple reports say Pakistan has sent arms to Ukraine, claims rejected by Islamabad—as well as on the war in Gaza. Pakistan backs the Palestinians; Munir, who once served in Saudi Arabia, also has close ties to the Persian Gulf states that are key to wartime diplomacy.

US officials will also want to discuss China. Pakistan has recently signaled a desire to achieve more balance in its relations with the United States and China, a key Pakistani ally. However, back in Pakistan, domestic politics will loom large over Munir’s visit. Since he took office, crackdowns on the country’s political opposition have intensified. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan was jailed in August. National elections are set for February, but delays are possible.

Munir may tell his hosts in Washington that Pakistan’s army has a stabilizing role to play at a moment of serious political turmoil. Administration officials aren’t likely to push back. But Khan’s large support base perceives Munir’s visit, as well as Washington’s relative silence on the recent crackdowns, as a tacit endorsement of repression in Pakistan. Such perceptions could pose an additional challenge for US-Pakistan relations going forward".