Pashinyan would have had nothing to show at Davos Figures and facts

The World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland was held without the participation of Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan refused to participate, apparently realizing that representing the Armenian economy is a thankless job. The Armenian Prime Minister has visited Davos only once so far, in 2019. Meanwhile, it is no exaggeration to say that Davos sometimes decides the fate of the economies of individual countries, and it is high time for Armenia to take care of its well-being, especially given its extremely low natural resource potential.

Most Armenian economists openly say that the country’s economy is unhealthy, that there is a sharp trade imbalance, with imports far exceeding exports, and that the country is able to only export labour. Therefore, a significant part of the transfers are remittances from migrant workers abroad.

In order to summarize the state of the current Armenian economy briefly, it is enough to note that the country recorded the highest unemployment rate among the CIS countries in 2022, with the number of unemployed people at 14.5%. The main challenges for the Armenian economy remain the low birth rate and emigration rates. Overall, the United Nations predicts that the birth rate in Armenia may decline to 24,000 in 2050, meaning that the country’s population could officially reach only 2.6 million in 30 years. Furthermore, according to the 2011 census, there were 3 million 18,900 people living in Armenia, but at the beginning of last year's official data there were only 2 million 964,600 left. This is a threatening indicator even for a small country like Armenia.

Yet this is not a complete list of negative phenomena confirming the difficult situation of the country. During Pashinyan’s reign, its public debt increased by more than 45% and now exceeds $9.97 billion. In 2021 alone, public debt increased by $1.3bn, or 16%, and in January-July 2022 by another $748.36 million. And according to disappointing forecasts of Armenian economists, Armenia faces even more difficult times in the future without any serious changes, investment activity or export-oriented sector growth.

Before Azerbaijan resolved the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the Armenian economy was deprived of development prospects against the backdrop of political and economic isolation, but the post-conflict period offers it enormous opportunities to break the economic deadlock, provided, however, the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Why Armenia is denying itself such an opportunity is a rhetorical question. It is obvious, that Armenia is not ready to join the regional processes. Pashinyan’s unwillingness to go to Davos should be considered in this context - the prime minister understands that the prospects of the Armenian economy are bleak, and there is no other way to develop but to make peace with Azerbaijan, which the Armenians cannot accept.

In a recent interview with local media, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev addressed a very clear message to the Armenian leadership, saying that its authorities should finally take responsibility and sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.

“I think that it is quite possible for the Armenian authorities to take responsibility and to sign a peace treaty”, the head of state stressed, pointing out that Yerevan’s hint at the fact that someone is preventing this is a “very convenient trick to withdraw responsibility”.

“[...] If the authority is responsible, it should be responsible for its actions. Every country has its difficulties, and every leader has his difficulties, but that is not something to speculate on. It is, as they say, a homework that everyone should do - to convince the public, to work to really strive for peace, and not just to articulate that there is such a peaceful agenda”, Aliyev summarized.

And Pashinyan would make good listening to the advice given by the Azerbaijani president, because not only the welfare of the Armenian people depends on this, but also his reputation as a politician.