Peace with Azerbaijan requires more than rhetoric from Armenia Expert insights

Armenia has repeatedly stated at various levels that it is allegedly ready to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan as soon as possible. Recently, Armenia's Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, made an intriguing statement: "I express cautious optimism that, in the near future, we will be able to agree on one or two key points, after which the agreement will be ready for signing."

Is a peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan likely to be signed soon? To explore this question, Caliber.Az reached out to Vugar Isgandarov, an Azerbaijani MP, and Eugene Kudryats, a German political analyst and journalist.

According to Vugar Isgandarov, unfortunately, Armenia's political establishment continues to propose ideas filled with political manipulation.

"In other words, the establishment speaks of peace and the conditions for signing a peace agreement, but on the other hand, we still don't see any real, rational steps. Azerbaijan does not need to sign a peace treaty just for the sake of peace. In other words, what is needed is not a piece of paper that could lose its legal status tomorrow, but a real document recognized by international law that would normalize interstate relations between the two countries.

Both Azerbaijani and Armenian officials acknowledge that positive steps have been taken recently, and this is true. Both sides claim to have reached agreements on many points. But this is not enough. Yerevan must remove any mention of territorial claims against Azerbaijan from Armenia's constitution. Furthermore, the Armenian authorities must officially declare that the OSCE Minsk Group should be dissolved de jure. These are crucial conditions.

At the same time, Armenia's participation in COP29 should not become a political tool. This is not a political arena, but a conference where countries discuss and take steps to address the planet's climate crisis. Armenia, like any country on Earth, must express its position on such sensitive issues. In other words, for Yerevan to impose any conditions for sending its delegation to Azerbaijan is politically unethical.

The issues at hand and the progress made so far suggest that it may be possible to prepare a framework document by the end of the year, provided that the conditions put forward by Azerbaijan are effectively implemented without further debate," emphasized Vugar Isgandarov.

According to Eugene Kudryats, it is unclear how the statements coming from Yerevan, particularly their tone, can be reconciled.

"For example, the categorical stance of French Ambassador Decottignies is certainly quite concerning—politically, no one owes anything to anyone. Clearly, there are the interests of both countries, and these must be respected when signing the agreement. I am highly sceptical that a peace agreement will be signed in November or even by the end of the year. At this point, from Yerevan, we still see only rhetoric, but no concrete actions. In my opinion, the situation will only move forward if the notorious preamble in Armenia's constitution, which mentions territorial claims against Azerbaijan, is removed. Other options are doubtful in terms of guarantees.

Equally questionable is the involvement of foreign intermediaries—whether this is even necessary is a big question. In my view, the most reliable format is still bilateral negotiations between Baku and Yerevan. One way or another, the first significant move, and perhaps more than one, should come from Yerevan, but the situation remains unchanged," concluded Kudryats.