Polish voters sharply divided following presidential TV debate ahead of election

With just days remaining before Poland’s June 1 presidential run-off, the final televised debate offered no surprises, as both candidates—liberal Rafał Trzaskowski and conservative Karol Nawrocki—focused on energising their base rather than presenting new ideas. With polls showing a dead heat at 47% each and 6% of voters still undecided, the debate was more about shaping turnout than winning converts.

Trzaskowski, who edged out Nawrocki in the first round on May 18 with 31.4% to 29.5%, aimed to reassert control after lackluster earlier performances. According to an analysis by the Polish TVP agency, whose TV channel hosted the debate, his campaign, part of the liberal Civic Coalition, had lost momentum since the first round. But on Friday, he appeared rested and composed, sticking to a “presidential” tone and avoiding conflict, particularly with far-right voters.

In contrast, Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party which was the dominant party for many years until losing it's majority in the 2023 parliamentary election, focused on consolidating right-wing support, especially from voters who had backed far-right candidates Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun. Rather than directly addressing recent controversy over his alleged involvement in a 2009 football hooligan brawl in Gdańsk, Nawrocki alluded to it by portraying himself as “a man of flesh and blood” who respects masculine competition.

Nawrocki’s strategy was to avoid errors and reassure conservatives, particularly those disillusioned with mainstream politics. He distanced himself from PiS by highlighting his former role running the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), not the government, and leaned into themes of cultural grievance, national identity, and resistance to EU influence. Promising a referendum on withdrawing from the EU’s Green Deal, he appealed to rural and anti-Brussels voters.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, emphasized his experience as mayor of Warsaw, a former minister, and MEP. He pushed back on Nawrocki’s accusation that he had privatized Warsaw’s hospitals, pointing to funding improvements and declaring, “There are no private hospitals in Warsaw. That’s simply false.” He used the debate to reengage centrist and liberal voters who backed him or Donald Tusk’s coalition in 2023.

Notably, Trzaskowski distanced himself from Grzegorz Braun, a controversial far-right candidate who received over 6% of the vote, and is under criminal investigation. He made it clear he would not share a platform with Braun, signaling to moderate voters that he would not pander to extremists.

Asked whether he would pardon Braun for allegedly assaulting a doctor, Nawrocki dodged the question, instead calling for unity despite differing worldviews. He frequently attacked Trzaskowski as beholden to elites, including banks, developers, and foreign interests, while casting himself as an everyman rooted in Polish tradition.

The debate was broadcast by public television (TVP), but its real political impact unfolded afterward, as both sides clipped soundbites and circulated them on social media. The candidates’ performances were tailored less to the live audience and more to post-debate messaging.

Trzaskowski’s approach was policy-focused and geared toward reassuring wavering centrists, while Nawrocki leaned into cultural touchstones and nationalist rhetoric to energize the conservative base. When Trzaskowski pressed Nawrocki on what updates he’d make to the National Security Strategy, Nawrocki offered vague references to NATO and national identity. Trzaskowski pounced: “You haven’t read the document.”

The election’s outcome may hinge on who can mobilize supporters, particularly the 1.5 million voters who backed the far-right Confederation party in the first round. These voters tend to be nationalist, anti-EU, and sceptical of Ukraine, and both candidates are vying for their turnout—without fully embracing their controversial positions. With both candidates evenly matched and no decisive blows landed, the final week is now all about turnout.

By Nazrin Sadigova