Post-election Germany facing change: Fears, hopes, risks A new era of right-wing populism

Islamophobia, populism, and societal division. The recent elections in Germany brought an unprecedented victory to the far-right. What lies ahead?

On February 23, Germany held early elections to the Bundestag, the most tense in its modern history. The political landscape in Germany is changing so dramatically that one of the parties from the recent ruling coalition failed to enter the parliament.

Germany takes a rightward turn

The results of the election were largely predictable, yet they still had a strong impact. The winner, as anticipated, was the conservative CDU/CSU led by Friedrich Merz, with 28.52% of the vote. However, the real victors of this election were the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), which received 20.8%, doubling their previous result. The recently ruling Social Democrats (SPD) came in third with 16.41%, while the Green party, also part of the government coalition, secured 11.61% of the vote. Rounding out the top five parties to enter parliament is the Left party (Die Linke) with 8.77% support from voters. One mandate is reserved for the South Schleswig Voters' Association, designated for the Danish and Frisian minorities.

If we rank the election participants by their improvement in results compared to the 2021 elections, the far-right AfD tops the list with a 10.4% increase in votes. In second place are the Christian Democrats from CDU/CSU, with a 4.4% gain. Third is the Left party (Die Linke), which unexpectedly increased its support by 3.9%. On the other hand, the "champions" in terms of losing voters were the Social Democrats (SPD), with a 9.3% decline. SPD General Secretary Matthias Miersch has already called this a "historical defeat." The SPD has never faced such a crushing result in its history. In second place on the negative list is the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which saw a 7.1% drop. The decline was so severe that the FDP, which had been part of Chancellor Scholz's government, failed to make it into the Bundestag altogether. FDP leader Christian Lindner announced the end of his political career. In third place in the negative ranking is the Alliance 90/The Greens, who lost 3.1% of their voters.

The elections were held with the highest voter turnout in the history of reunified Germany, reaching 83-84%. They were marked by an intensity reminiscent of the Weimar Republic era.

As for the victory of the conservatives from CDU/CSU, it was nothing new. In Germany, the Christian Democrats traditionally replace the Social Democrats in power, following a well-established decades-old two-party system. The most dramatic developments this time unfolded on the far-right and far-left flanks.

Triumph of right-wing populism

The popularity of the far-right AfD has now set new records, an achievement not seen in Germany since the 1920s-30s. In all the eastern states of Germany—formerly the GDR—the right-wing populists even took first place, garnering up to 30% of support.

So what is the secret behind the AfD phenomenon? Many believe that its success is primarily due to its strong anti-immigrant stance. However, the first section of the AfD's pre-election program is focused on social issues, calling for a return to the social market economy (Soziale Marktwirtschaft), which has long ensured Germany's prosperity. Indeed, Germany is currently grappling with a severe economic crisis. But the far-right positions itself as the defender of the "middle class," which was once thriving. They promise to support entrepreneurs rather than those relying on social benefits.

Though the AfD also makes promises to pensioners, they are framed within a broader shift toward a funded pension system. However, the right to unemployment benefits is proposed to be limited. The program also includes promises typical of liberals and libertarians, such as lowering taxes, regulations, and restrictions—especially environmental ones. The AfD dedicates a significant portion of its platform to criticizing "green" policies, which it claims have weakened or allegedly weakened Germany's economy. Additionally, they declare their intention to restore Germany’s leadership in global technology and quality.

The AfD likely gained considerable support from its promises to protect citizens from digital control by the state. Specifically, the party's manifesto states: "We oppose the involvement of Chinese corporations, which are de facto under the control of the Communist Party of China, in the expansion of digital infrastructure in Germany." China is the only country mentioned negatively in the AfD's platform. It is viewed both as an important partner and as a competitor. The party calls for any assistance to China’s development, alongside India and Pakistan, to be halted.

The AfD also advocates for improving relations with the U.S., particularly with the new administration, which has abandoned the liberal "progressive agenda." However, they acknowledge that U.S. and European interests are increasingly diverging. German nationalists are also dissatisfied with the stationing of American cruise missiles and drones in Germany. Notably, Elon Musk and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance effectively supported the AfD in this election.

The "pro-Russian" stance of the far-right has been greatly exaggerated, both by Western and Russian propaganda. The AfD’s program mentions Russia only as a supplier of cheap energy resources, which are crucial for Germany’s energy-intensive industries. It also calls for the repair of the Nord Stream pipeline. The AfD advocates for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, which undoubtedly attracted votes from many voters. However, the AfD's peace plan for Ukraine called for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory.

Of course, in the area of migration, German nationalists promise a "radical shift." They advocate for the harshest measures, including deportation. If, as in Syria, the grounds for granting asylum are considered to no longer exist, refugees should be returned. Terms such as "Muslim extremism," "violence from left-wing radicals and Antifa," and "clan and criminal activity in Arab cultural circles" are specifically highlighted and mentioned multiple times, with entire sections of the program devoted to them. Right-wing extremism is only mentioned once, vaguely, with the statement that it is "also unacceptable." However, the AfD proposes to criminalize the symbols of anti-fascist and left-wing radical organizations. They also call for imprisoning "climate extremists," likely referring to the increasing road blockades and other actions by environmental activists.

The far-right is not only mobilizing against politicized radical Islam. The AfD's program states: "The AfD opposes granting Islamic organizations the status of legal entities under public law, as Islam—unlike, for example, the Evangelical and Catholic churches—does not have specific structures and forms of organization…"

The AfD also demands a departure from the EU's general asylum policy and the termination of existing agreements. They call for the restoration of border control by the federal police, with the construction of what would effectively be prisons ("temporary detention centres") directly at the border. Public organizations that oppose deportations are promised "consequential prosecution." In response to rising juvenile crime, they propose lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 12 years old. Additionally, if there is doubt about the actual age of a teenage defendant, biological testing should be conducted.

Against the backdrop of the unprecedented economic crisis that has engulfed the largest economy in the EU in recent years, ordinary Germans are growing increasingly uncertain about their immediate future. Right-wing populists have adeptly capitalized on the fears of the average citizen, addressing concerns about falling living standards, competition from China, the war in Ukraine, poorly controlled migration, "digital totalitarianism," and the extremes of gender and "climate" agendas.

There will be no “reason and justice” in the Bundestag

This cannot be said about their opponents from the far-left and "green" camps. The Left Party (Die Linke) has rapidly lost support in recent years, largely due to its excessive focus on gender and similar issues, according to many observers. Then, on the left flank, a new star seemed to emerge—Sahra Wagenknecht, a Bundestag member from Die Linke. She began calling for a return of the German left to its traditional social agenda and a decisive break from the liberal leanings. Wagenknecht gained particular popularity due to her firm stance on ending the war in Ukraine.

In January 2024, after long and unsuccessful disputes with her party leadership, the charismatic Wagenknecht went on to create her own party, which was named Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)– Reason and Justice. Her appeal to common sense, in contrast to the extremes of "left-liberal" intolerance, made Wagenknecht quite popular among ordinary Germans. In addition to breaking away from Die Linke, the BSW attracted members from almost all other parties and movements. The emergence of a personality-driven party was a completely new phenomenon in modern Germany, which has become increasingly depersonalized, and initially, the project took on a fresh appeal.

Last year, the left-wing populist party of Sahra Wagenknecht performed quite successfully in the European Parliament elections and in three former GDR states. In two of them, Thuringia and Brandenburg, representatives of the BSW are now part of the state governments. However, some experts argue that this inclusion in "realpolitik" seemingly deprived the BSW of its image as an uncompromising opposition force and led to its defeat.

Another reason for the failure is cited as Sara Wagenknecht's shift in position on the Ukraine crisis and her stance towards Russia shortly before the vote. Part of the left-wing electorate was alienated by her faction's vote in favour of stricter migration laws, which she passed together with the right-wing parties, CDU and AfD. However, it seems that the main cause of the party's failure was the widespread campaign launched against Sahra Wagenknecht just before the federal elections. Both the right and left sides launched attacks on the competitor who had intruded into their "territory." The BSW posed a particular threat to the right-wing populists from the AfD, especially in the eastern states. Meanwhile, the leftists denounced her proposals on reasonable migration regulation as "fascist." As a result, the BSW fell short by 0.03% of passing into the Bundestag. The party's lawyers intend to challenge the election results.

But perhaps the biggest winners from Wagenknecht’s defeat were Die Linke. In these elections, the once struggling left-wing party achieved its second-best result in history. In Berlin, Die Linke even claimed first place. In the previous elections, this party failed to reach the necessary 5% threshold and only entered parliament thanks to a special mechanism of "direct mandates." However, it seems that the threat of a rightward shift mobilized the left-wing supporters, and throughout 2024, they joined the party in large numbers. As a result, Die Linke grew to 81,000 members, a historic high.

Right-left cabinet

As German media reports, after the federal elections, things in the Bundestag continue to be in disarray. German business associations and economists are calling for the swift formation of a new cabinet, as Germany's economy is already facing difficult times. The budget for 2025 has yet to be approved by the outgoing Bundestag. CDU/CSU have promised to form a government by Easter (which falls on April 20 this year). The parliament will also need to elect a new president.

Who will form the new government of Germany? After all, CDU/CSU are far from securing a majority in parliament. AfD leader Alice Weidel has already stated that her party is open to coalition talks with the Greens. However, the future Chancellor from the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, has firmly ruled out involving the far-right in the new government. The most likely partner could be SPD, with whom a two-party government is possible. A coalition with the Greens and Die Linke is only conceivable as a mathematical majority, but this is unlikely in practice.

However, the formation of the new coalition government may be influenced by the United States. Understanding the lack of alternatives, SPD leader Lars Klingbeil has flirted with the idea, stating: “We neither want to be part of the government, nor refuse to be part of it.” For the creation of a "red-black" coalition, the Social Democrats have already set their conditions: preserving jobs, ensuring security, reducing bureaucracy, and promoting a "strong Europe."

Nonetheless, the presence of the second-largest faction from the far-right in parliament, with whom the centre-right CDU recently passed a law tightening migration rules, will certainly have an impact on both domestic and foreign policy in Germany. This will also affect the lives of Germany's Muslim community.