Purposes and prospects of US-Iranian "secret" nuclear talks Closed-door diplomacy in function

On June 15, the Israeli media claimed citing anonymous sources that the Biden administration is holding secret nuclear talks with Iran despite earlier claiming that any negotiations with Tehran are useless. According to reports, US and Iranian officials have been holding closed-door negotiations, including indirect talks in Oman, to de-escalate tensions in the region in an attempt to curb Tehran's nuclear program and release American prisoners. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani confirmed the ongoing secret talks with the US despite earlier refutes.

Although specific details are unknown, Tehran and Washington are likely discussing lifting sanctions in exchange for curbing nuclear policy. Neither the US nor Oman made the visiting public, suggesting only something as serious as Iran could have called for such secrecy. Though the Biden administration has spoken of its desire to quash Iran's nuclear program, its soft approach has called into question the lengths it will go to.

The decision to hold the secret talks in Oman is not a coincidence as the country stands in a good position due to its recent role in Iran – Saudi détente. The chief negotiator from the Iranian side is Abbas Araghchi, the former deputy foreign minister under Hassan Rouhani and the current secretary of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, an advisory board for the supreme leader. The focus of the talks was reviving the 2015 nuclear deal and finalizing an agreement on freeing American prisoners in exchange for Iranian assets being unfrozen in several countries, including South Korea.

However, few officials believe it is still possible to revive the former nuclear agreement, under which Iran agreed to stringent limits on its nuclear activity and strict international Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring in return for sanctions relief.

Indeed, the ongoing secret talks with Iran stirred harsh debates and criticism in other partner states, including Saudi Arabia and Israel. In Israel, the ultranationalist government of PM Benjamin Netanyahu dubbed the emerging deal a “mini agreement” in closed-door remarks at the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Israel is a staunch opponent of any agreements/talks with Iran referring to its long-term destructive proxy warfare strategy in the Middle East and attempts to acquire a nuclear weapon.

According to Israel’s assessment, the potential deal would entail an immediate halt to Iran’s military-grade uranium enrichment and curb it at a 60% level; one version has the level even set at 20%. Iran would also freeze its advanced development of ballistic missiles and the transfer of attack drones to Russia, cooperate with international inspections of its uranium stockpiles and release three Americans it is holding on what the United States describes as bogus espionage charges.

The reality of Iran’s growing stockpile of highly enriched uranium means the stakes are rising dangerously. Pentagon officials worry about an escalation causing the US to stumble into a conflict. Therefore, the US would need to engage in the ongoing nuclear talks to ensure Iran complies with the main conditions of the nuclear agreement. If positive, the Biden administration would unfreeze some $20 billion in Iranian assets held in various foreign banks in order to ease diplomatic rhetoric and tensions.

For example, the current arrangement between Iran and the US that allowed Iran to receive outstanding debt payments from Iraq was a positive step for Iran, while for the US, it is merely a reversal of the dangerous trend of not addressing Tehran's nuclear advances.

Notwithstanding, the US approach to Iran and mediated talks in Oman provoked the reaction of the Israeli government and caused separate negotiations between Washington and Tel Aviv recently to prevent a potential deal with Iran. However, at this point, it is unlikely that the US would cut all communication lines with Iran, as President Joe Biden aims to gain more political weight amid its low approval rate and the decision to run for re-election next year.

The official narrative of Iran still claims that its nuclear policy and program are for peaceful purposes and that its ballistic missiles program should not be included in a revived nuclear deal. As such, Tehran is keen to strike an interim agreement with the US as such a formula does not require Congress's approval, eliminating obstacles for Iran. However, in exchange, the Biden administration will likely demand Iran cut all military aid to Russia in its invasion campaign against Ukraine.

A potential nuclear agreement with Tehran could prevent tensions around the nuclear deal in the near future from boiling over and deter Western parties from seeking additional counter-measures. Also, the potential agreement would pave the way for a fast reconciliation process in the Gulf region and strengthen the US's position as the major stakeholder.