Putin may push for more Ukrainian territory, analysts say after Istanbul talks

A new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Moscow is laying the groundwork for significantly tougher territorial demands from Ukraine, using recent negotiations in Istanbul as a platform to escalate its rhetoric and strategic posture.

ISW analysts argue that Russia’s threats during the May 16 talks — including explicit warnings about the potential seizure of Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy regions — are more than diplomatic bluster, Caliber.Az reports. Instead, they represent a deliberate pressure tactic designed to shape the terms of any future ceasefire or peace agreement in Russia’s favour.

The Kremlin's negotiating position appears to be shifting toward more aggressive demands, not less. While Western powers — including the US, the EU, and Ukraine — continue to advocate for a ceasefire as a prerequisite for negotiations to end the war, Russia has rejected that framework. Instead, the ISW suggests, Moscow may be weaponising the idea of ceasefire talks themselves, using them as leverage to extract pre-emptive territorial concessions.

During the Istanbul meeting, Russian representatives reportedly insisted that Ukraine must cede full control of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions — territories that remain partially occupied — even before any cessation of hostilities is considered. ISW analysts view this as a signal that the Kremlin is not merely seeking to consolidate its current positions but is actively preparing to expand its ambitions.

Moreover, the added threat of advancing on Kharkiv and Sumy — regions not formally included in Moscow’s earlier annexation claims — suggests a hardening of Russia’s negotiating stance. “Such territorial demands are normally reserved for the final stages of war-ending negotiations,” the report notes. “Their introduction at this stage implies a strategic shift and an intent to pressure Ukraine into entering talks from a position of weakness.”

The ISW warns that if Ukraine were to accept Moscow’s proposed preconditions for a ceasefire, President Vladimir Putin is likely to respond not with compromise, but with an expanded list of demands, raising the stakes of any future negotiations.

In essence, the ISW paints a picture of a Kremlin unwilling to engage in talks on equal footing. Instead, it is using diplomacy as a tool of coercion — a means not to end the war, but to shape its outcome unilaterally.

By Tamilla Hasanova