Reuters: CIA assessment questions impact of US blockade on Iran

The United States and Iran showed no signs of moving closer to ending their war on May 9 after renewed clashes in the Gulf tested a fragile ceasefire, while a U.S. intelligence analysis, cited by Reuters, concluded Tehran could ‌withstand a naval blockade for months.

Fighting has intensified in recent days in and around the Strait of Hormuz, marking the most serious flare-ups since a ceasefire was announced on April 7. The United Arab Emirates also came under renewed attack on Friday.

Washington is awaiting Tehran’s response to a U.S. proposal that would formally end the war before addressing more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program. Speaking in Rome on Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. expected a response that day, though an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson indicated Tehran was still considering its position.

Sporadic clashes continued in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, according to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency. Tasnim later cited an Iranian military source saying the situation had calmed, while warning further confrontations remained possible. The U.S. military said it struck two Iran-linked vessels attempting to enter an Iranian port, with a fighter jet targeting their smokestacks and forcing them to turn back.

Since the war began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iran has largely blocked non-Iranian shipping through the strait, a critical waterway that previously carried about one-fifth of global oil supply. The United States imposed a blockade on Iranian vessels last month.

However, a CIA assessment suggested Iran could withstand the economic impact of a U.S. naval blockade for several months, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter, raising questions about President Donald Trump’s leverage. A senior intelligence official later dismissed as false the “claims” about the analysis, which had been reported by the Washington Post.

The conflict has also spread beyond the strait. The UAE said its air defenses intercepted two ballistic missiles and three drones launched from Iran on Friday, with three people suffering moderate injuries. Iran has repeatedly targeted Gulf states hosting U.S. military bases and has escalated attacks this week following Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom,” a plan to escort ships through the strait that was paused after 48 hours.

Trump said on Thursday that the ceasefire was still holding, despite the violence, while Iran accused Washington of violating it. “Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday. Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that one crew member was killed, 10 wounded, and six missing after a U.S. Navy strike on an Iranian commercial vessel late Thursday.

The United States has struggled to build international support. After meeting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Rubio questioned why allies were not backing efforts to reopen the strait, warning of the risks if Iran were allowed to control a key international waterway.

At the same time, Washington has increased economic pressure. Ahead of Trump’s planned trip to China to meet President Xi Jinping, the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on 10 individuals and companies, including entities in China and Hong Kong, accused of helping Iran procure materials for its Shahed drone program.

Treasury said it was prepared to target any foreign company involved in illicit Iranian trade and could impose secondary sanctions on financial institutions, including those tied to China’s independent oil refineries.

By Tamilla Hasanova