Reuters: Russian satellite in suspected nuclear program malfunctions

The Russian satellite Cosmos 2553, long suspected by U.S. officials of being linked to a nuclear anti-satellite weapon program, appears to be spinning uncontrollably, raising questions about its operational status and signalling a possible setback for Moscow's space weapon development efforts.

Launched just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Cosmos 2553 was initially believed to serve as a radar satellite for intelligence purposes and a platform for radiation testing. However, over the past year, U.S. analysts have observed irregularities in its behaviour. Data from space-tracking firms LeoLabs and Slingshot Aerospace indicated episodes of errant spinning, suggesting the satellite may have suffered a critical malfunction, Caliber.Az reports, citing Reuters.

According to LeoLabs, Doppler radar measurements collected in November 2024 revealed significant anomalies in the satellite’s motion. By December, further imagery and radar data allowed analysts to assess with "high confidence" that Cosmos 2553 was tumbling in orbit. Slingshot Aerospace independently observed variations in the satellite’s brightness in May 2024, further supporting the assessment of unstable rotation. Though recent observations suggest Cosmos 2553 may have partially stabilised, its long-term functionality remains uncertain.

The satellite orbits at approximately 2,000 kilometres above Earth, a zone heavily saturated with cosmic radiation that conventional communications and Earth-observing satellites typically avoid. U.S. Space Command confirmed it had detected a change in Cosmos 2553’s altitude but declined to comment further on its operational condition.

Washington has raised concerns that Cosmos 2553, while not itself a weapon, may contribute to Russia’s efforts to develop a nuclear anti-satellite weapon capable of targeting large satellite networks like SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, which has been instrumental to Ukrainian military operations. Moscow has denied these allegations, asserting that the satellite’s purpose is purely scientific, aimed at testing instruments in high-radiation environments.

The Cosmos 2553 case highlights the growing militarisation of space, where the U.S., Russia, and China are investing heavily in military technologies with potential offensive applications. Commercial space-tracking services such as LeoLabs and Slingshot Aerospace have become critical players in monitoring these developments, as governments seek better visibility to prevent miscalculations and manage the risks of escalation in orbit.

The broader geopolitical implications are significant. U.S. officials, including former Assistant Secretary of State Mallory Stewart, have previously warned that Russia is contemplating the integration of nuclear capabilities into its space warfare programs. The launch of Cosmos 2553 was reportedly a catalyst for Washington's reassessment of Moscow's counterspace ambitions.

By Vugar Khalilov