Russia may forget about Armenia forever Russian political analyst’s opinion for Caliber.Az
Director General of the Russian Centre for Political Analysis and Social Research, Russian political analyst and publicist Pavel Danilin has had a blitz interview with Caliber.Az.
- How would you comment on Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s statements regarding Armenia, which he has recently voiced in an interview with TASS?
- Lavrov’s statements addressed to Armenia are a warning and a signal to the Armenian leadership that the Russian Federation is closely monitoring the ongoing events in Yerevan and that Russia is not interested in Armenia’s shifting away from Moscow.
We see that Armenia starts shifting towards NATO and the EU, which is greatly straining Russia. We understand the consequences. Armenia will simply lose its sovereignty.
- Do you think Russia will be able to keep influencing Armenia?
- This is a very difficult question, because it is unclear whether Russia should keep influencing Armenia. Lavrov stressed the necessity and importance of influencing Armenia, but many people in Russia have doubts if we take into account the way of keeping Armenia.
- For example, by military supplies to Armenia...
- I think that the expansion of military-technical cooperation may mean the resumption of supplies of Russian weapons to Yerevan. Armenia has always received the Russian weapons in the South Caucasus. This is true.
On the other hand, the rearmament of the Armenian army is an urgent need for it after the defeat in the war with Azerbaijan. The Armenian army must be re-equipped with modern types of weapons, especially Russian ones.
- As for expansion of the EU mission in Armenia, what will Yerevan actually achieve by irritating Russia with such provocative policy?
- France and the EU, even amid the expansion of the mission in Armenia, will not bring anything useful. All their promises are just talk and bait.
Armenia hopes to be accepted into the EU. However, this will turn into a big problem for it. Ukraine can be mentioned as an example. I do not say that there will be a conflict between Russia and Armenia. There will not be any conflict. Russia may just forget about Armenia forever. That's all.
- We don’t see this yet. On the contrary, Moscow is not putting pressure on Yerevan in connection with concluding a peace agreement with Baku.
- Russia has done its best to contribute to the process of concluding a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and to realise this intention.
Yerevan must be grateful to Moscow because it has made efforts to end the Armenia-Azerbaijan Karabakh conflict. If Armenia had implemented the recommendations given by Moscow 7-8 years ago, the current situation with the territories would have been completely different.
However, Armenia was preparing for a war in which it was defeated. This outcome was also the result of advice given to Armenia by the West. So, if Armenians think that NATO and the EU can really give them something positive, then they are greatly mistaken. Armenia may be deprived of sovereignty in this case.
- What was 2023 like from the point of view of the Russia-Azerbaijan and the Russia-Armenia relations?
- If previously relations between Russia and Azerbaijan were tense, then in 2023 they improved, and this is certainly a positive factor.
As for the Armenia-Russia relations, they are deteriorating, which is a negative fact.