Russian Su-35 fighter jets exported to Iran will not be game-changers Tehran is on very thin ice

On December 25, 2022, the Israeli intelligence services reported that Russia is preparing to hand over around twenty indigenously built factory-fresh, twin-engine Sukhoi-35 (SU35) fighter jets to Iran under a new agreement. The report claimed that the deal could include as many as 24 jets that were initially intended for Egypt, in a deal that the United States thwarted. The cancelled order for Egypt pushed Russia to seek a new buyer, which it has reportedly found in Tehran. More interestingly, the Iranian pilots already underwent a relevant training program in Russia months before the intelligence report occurred.

While Western intelligence also confirmed the accuracy of earlier information, on January 15, 2023, an Iranian parliamentarian Shahriar Heidari said that the jets would arrive in Iran on March 21 of this year. Moreover, Tehran has also ordered a number of other military equipment from Russia, including air defence systems, missile systems and helicopters, most of which will arrive soon.

Indeed, Iran has long been interested in acquiring modern fighter jets to boost its Air Forces, which operate vintage fighter jets such as F-5 bought before the 1979 Islamic revolution with many airframes worn after 40+ years of operation. Although in recent years, Iran attempted to compensate for the lack of modern fighter jets by importing Chinese-made fighter jets, numerous crash incidents pushed Tehran to walk away from this option.

Since the war broke out between Russia and Ukraine, Iran deepened its defence and economic ties with the former as its long-term strategic partner. Within this framework, Iran provided Russia with numerous loitering munitions and combat drones, namely Shaheed, to be used against the Ukrainian forces. Unsurprisingly, such military assistance to Russia's brutal war campaign in Ukraine came at a price of additional sanctions against Iran imposed by the West.

It is fair to note that the growing number of international sanctions harshly hit the already-stagnated Iranian economy amid mass riots and police violence against civilian protesters at home. The violence and public discontent with the repressive Islamic regime seemingly pushed the local authorities to change their vision regarding the regular armed forces and air forces, which the regime never trusted.

Instead, the regime built up the Islamic Guards (IRGC) as a loyal, parallel armed force that has long since outgunned the regular military. Hence, for official Tehran, the technical development of air forces has not been on the main agenda, as Iran is focused mainly on proxy warfare in the Gulf region, avoiding from involving in a conventional war with regional states. Therefore, the re-route of significant resources to support proxy forces across the region neglected the capabilities of its regular army and air forces for many years.

In 2015, the Iranian Air Forces reportedly wanted at least 30 Su-30s to upgrade its ageing fighter fleet but were overruled by the IRGC, whose priority at that time was helping keep Syria's embattled President Bashar al-Assad in power. Nevertheless, the increasing vulnerability and emerging security dilemmas renewed the regime's intentions to upgrade air assault capabilities.

However, only the most trusted pilots will likely be allowed to use the newly-acquired fighter jets, though there is no sign that the IRAF would enjoy special privileges provided by the regime. It's mainly because the IRGC can't handle modern fighter jets and needs the infrastructure and organization, as it has never operated more advanced aircraft than those vintage Soviet-era Su-22 Fitter or Su-25.

The acquisition of Russian-made fighter jets would increase Iran’s leverage over the region, but it will not be a game-changer due to the poor performance of the Russian defence products in the Ukrainian battleground that is exposed to be highly vulnerable to Western-made smart weaponry. In exchange, Tehran would increase the export of combat drones to Russia, which is vitally important for the latter’s efforts to destroy Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and exert more pressure. Hence, according to Mossad chief David Barnea, Iran is looking to expand its supply of advanced weapons to Russia.

Iran’s acquisition and successful use of Russian fighter jets may pave the way for acquiring modern Chinese fighter jets. However, China will likely avoid the purchase of sophisticated fighter jets to Iran not to inflame diplomatic rifts with the West. Acquiring new Su-35 jets in early 2023 could permit the IRIAF to finally retire some of its oldest fighters, stave off terminal decline, and carry out muscle shows in the region, at least for a short period.