Snap elections for Kazakh parliament, local assemblies Granting more legislative powers

The early elections to the lower house of Kazakhstan's parliament (the Majilis) and local councils (the maslikhats) are scheduled for 19 March. 

The upcoming election will be an acid test for Kazakhstan for experiencing a new era and political development, and it is the final step to the formation of a new, balanced political system with a pluralism of opinions, open debates, and fair competition.

The lower house, the Majilis, under the new constitutional rules features 98 members, 30 per cent of which are elected according to a majoritarian system and the rest elected by proportional representation on party lists. Members serve five-year terms.

New constitutional changes affecting elections

A series of laws and amendments were approved following the June 2022 constitutional referendum, which aimed to reform Kazakhstan's political system by granting more parliamentary powers to the lower chamber Majilis as well as for its mandate seats to be allocated via mixed-member majoritarian representation for the first time since 2004.

By changing the constitution, Kazakh President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev aimed to dismantle what he called "the oligopolistic system" created by his predecessor, Nazarbayev, who stepped down in 2019 after nearly 30 years in power.

For the first time since 2004, independent candidates are allowed to compete for 29 seats that will be chosen in single-mandate districts. The remaining 69 seats will be chosen by party list and seven parties registered. These seven parties are all considered to be pro-government:

- the ruling party Amanat (previously known as Nur Otan)

- the business-focused democratic party Ak Zhol

- the agrarian and rural issues Auyl party

- "Baytaq" Green Party of Kazakhstan

- the socialist-leaning People’s Party

- the socialist-leaning National Social Democratic Party (OSDP)

- the Respublica party which reportedly has connections with the Tokayev administration

To the maslikhats of the country's regions, towns of republican significance and the capital city, 50% will be elected from party lists and 50% from single-seat constituencies.

Restoration of the mixed system

The upcoming elections will be significantly different from the previous ones. The restoration of the mixed system opens up opportunities for opposition forces and independent candidates to participate in elections, which for many years were inaccessible.

On 20 February, independent candidates running for the lower house of Kazakhstan's parliament formed a bloc and issued a manifesto calling on voters to support candidates not affiliated with any parties in single-seat constituencies.

Since January 2022, Kazakh society has seen big changes: the weakening of the presidential vertical of power; the president is elected for a single seven-year term with no right for reelection, and is no longer head of the ruling party, Amanat; the law on the Elbasy (leader of the nation) has been cancelled; the new Senate (the upper house of Parliament) has been elected.

The pro-government political analysts and experts believe that this system will increase competition, give opposition forces a chance to enter the parliament, protect the interests of voters at the national and regional levels, and give additional impetus to the development of Kazakhstan’s civil society.

On 13 March, in a meeting with top officials to discuss social stability and cohesion in the country ahead of the elections, President Tokayev said that “the final stage in the renewal of the institutions of power will be the elections to the lower house of the parliament and local councils. This will give the authorities a mandate of confidence to continue with comprehensive reforms”.

President Tokayev also promised "equal access to the media" for all candidates and parties.

Expectations from the votes

The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutes and Human Rights will send 332 observers to monitor the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Over 12 million voters are registered for the upcoming election. The Strategy Center for Social and Political Studies expects a voter turnout of 59 per cent in the parliamentary election. 

It is expected that new faces and ideas will enter the Majilis after the new vote. According to most observers, the lion’s share of seats in the Majilis will be captured by the ruling Amanat party. Other parties will struggle to get past the 5 per cent threshold. 

According to a Kazakh analyst, Assel Nussupova, “this election is a significant step in the path of reform President Tokayev is laying out to confront the vast domestic and international challenges Kazakhstan is currently facing”.

“There is hope that the upcoming parliamentary election that will be held under the new, mixed electoral system will bring change and facilitate democratization and political liberalization in Kazakhstan,” she added.

The next 5-year term of the new Parliament is also likely to foster new political movements and give birth to new parties, which will take part in the presidential election due to happen in 2029, from which current president Tokayev has already declared he will not participate. 

The representatives of the “Auyl” People’s Patriotic Democratic Party of Kazakhstan and the “Baytaq” Green Party of Kazakhstan noted that changes in the electoral system of the Republic of Kazakhstan break new ground for political involvement and achieving pluralism of opinion.

Kazakhstan’s uneasy balance of high-level policy and negative sentiment around Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine is also unlikely to change significantly, no matter the outcome of the snap elections in March. A new, more pluralistic parliament will almost certainly not change the course of Kazakhstan’s bilateral policy toward Russia or of policy writ large.

Kazakhstan will likely continue to maintain relations within Russia-led economic and military multilateral bodies such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) while introducing more boundaries on such engagement and bolstering its economic and military self-sufficiency.