South Caucasus on brink of new deadly escalation Difficult autumn is ahead

Amid geopolitical uncertainty and global security, cataclysms emerged shortly after the Russo-Ukraine war in 2022. The interregional power dynamics in the post-Soviet region may be shifted repeatedly with the renewed armed clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Garabagh region.

After the long peace talks in Moscow, Sochi, Prague, Brussels, and Washington, Baku and Yerevan did not reach a consensus on any of the issues initially set on the agenda. Moreover, frequent fire exchanges between the Azerbaijani military and Armenian armed groups in the region appeared to be the main obstacle for both states to build mutual trust and maintain sustainable peace talks.

On the other hand, Baku asserted control over the Garabagh region by taking a firm stance toward the de-facto separatist regime, which recently witnessed political turmoil that resulted in Arayik Harutunyan's resignation, adding to the instability.

On Armenia’s end, since the end of the war in 2020, official Yerevan put enormous efforts to delay the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, referring to the existing concerns, namely the security issue of the Garabagh Armenians. Despite Baku's assurances, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan refused to proceed with the final peace treaty.

Moreover, the Armenian government recently exacerbated tensions with Russia, its traditional security partner. Armenia may officially remain in the Kremlin-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) despite Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's threat to withdraw from the alliance, but its leaders and public are anything but quiet about their dissatisfaction with the allies that have repeatedly let them down.

Unsurprisingly, the Kremlin rejected a suggestion by Armenia's prime minister that Russia had failed to protect Armenia in its standoff with neighbouring Azerbaijan and was winding down its role in the broader South Caucasus.

During his most recent interview with an Italian newspaper, PM Nikol Pashinyan critically assessed the role of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in ensuring the safety of the Armenian population in Garabagh, thus highlighting the gap in Yerevan-Moscow relations.

PM Nikol Pashinyan’s comments toward Russia indicate that Yerevan does not hide its disappointment with Russia’s limited role in the region since the outbreak of war in 2020 that enabled Azerbaijan to liberate large swathes of territories in Garabagh.

And that followed a statement by the Foreign Ministry three days earlier criticizing Russia's "absolute indifference" to what the ministry called Azerbaijan's acts of aggression, including the September 2022 incursion and the June 15, 2023 incident in which Azerbaijani troops advanced towards Armenia from the border checkpoint on the Lachin road, which connects Armenia and Garabagh.

Instead, Armenia turned to France and, to some extent, Iran as "more powerful actors" willing to "defend Armenia against Azerbaijan." As such, a poll taken by the International Republican Institute (IRI) this spring found that more Armenians viewed France and Iran as important security partners than Russia.

France, Iran and the United States—all home to large Armenian diasporas—were viewed as the top three "most important political partners for Armenia" by 75, 67 and 52 per cent of respondents, respectively, while Russia was fourth on the list with 50 per cent.

However, of the concern of Armenia, France, and Iran do not possess enough political and economic leverage over Azerbaijan in order to introduce changes to its foreign policy agenda, though Russia possesses sufficient leverage to influence and exert force on Armenia.

Therefore, Armenia's decision to hold a joint military exercise with the US dubbed “Eagle Partner 2023” stirred debates in the Kremlin. In this vein, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded, "It is certain that holding such exercises will not facilitate the stabilization of the situation - in any case, it will not facilitate the strengthening of an atmosphere of mutual trust in the region."

Peskov’s comments suggest that Russia has no intention to withdraw from Armenia or the South Caucasus region by continuing to exploit the feud between Baku and Yerevan. Armenia currently hosts around 10,000 Russian troops, 5,000 of which are stationed at Gyumri's 102nd Russian military base. Others are stationed in Yerevan, including at Zvartnots International Airport.

With the current anti-Russian rhetoric surging in Armenia, Moscow may take further actions to punish Yerevan, as the former needs to demonstrate that it is still the major regional power and a key mediator.

Notably, fears are rising in Azerbaijan and Armenia regarding the new war in Garabagh as both sides were spotted moving troops in the region. If this occurs, Russia will unlikely show commitment to support the ruling Armenian government against Azerbaijan's advancement in Garabagh, particularly since Moscow is now directly speaking of Karabakhi Armenians' need to accept Baku's rule over the war-torn region.