The Guardian: UK food prices set to surge 50% since 2021

Global food prices are on course to be 50% higher by November compared with the start of the 2021 cost of living crisis, according to new research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

The report found that climate and energy shocks have dramatically accelerated food price growth, with costs rising over the past five years at nearly four times the pace seen in the previous two decades. Analysts say the trend reflects increasing exposure of global food systems to volatile energy markets and extreme weather, The Guardian writes.

Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation, warned of the growing social impact of rising prices:

“Food prices rising this high and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate. When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises – taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it.”

The findings suggest the cost of living crisis will remain a major political issue into 2026, as inflationary pressures persist. Economists say the ongoing war in the Middle East—linked to policies by U.S. President Donald Trump—is likely to push prices higher, particularly through increased energy costs. Earlier inflation spikes were driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Bank of England has projected that food inflation could reach 7% by the end of the year, citing rising costs for fertiliser, transport and energy.

According to the ECIU, staple items such as pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate and eggs have all increased in price by at least 50% over the past five years. Beef prices have risen by 64%, while olive oil prices have more than doubled. The thinktank said these increases reflect the products’ “sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods and heatwaves, both in the UK and in key import regions”.

The report also found that household food bills rose by an average of £605 across 2022 and 2023, with climate-affected products such as butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee continuing to drive inflation.

Chris Jaccarini, a food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said: “Trump’s war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike. Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Niño effect kicking off this year. Three of England’s worst harvests on record have been in the past five years.”

Even after adjusting for wage growth, the ECIU found that food prices have risen by 11% since 2021, adding to broader increases in essential household costs such as energy and water, which remain difficult for consumers to reduce.

By Sabina Mammadli