Trump faces more emboldened North Korean leader amid shifting geopolitical landscape

An article from Business Insider highlights the challenges Donald Trump faces in dealing with an emboldened North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, should he return to power. Trump, who often reflected on the positive rapport he had with Kim during his presidency, now faces a much stronger, more assertive North Korea, influenced by both internal developments and geopolitical shifts.

Kim Jong Un's rhetoric has grown more hostile, accusing the US of maintaining an "unchanging aggressive and hostile policy" toward North Korea. These comments suggest that Kim is less likely to be receptive to Trump’s overtures this time around. One of the key tensions is rooted in the 2019 Hanoi summit, where Trump walked out after Kim overplayed his hand, creating a lasting grudge with the North Korean leader. This history raises doubts about the feasibility of direct talks between the two, unless Trump is willing to make significant concessions.

The international context surrounding Kim’s position has also changed. In 2017, when Trump first took office, North Korea was almost entirely isolated due to severe UN sanctions aimed at halting its nuclear program.

However, Kim has since leveraged the Russian invasion of Ukraine to break this isolation. He brokered a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, exchanging North Korean military support for vital supplies like food, oil, and technology.

This strategic alliance with Russia has been vital for Kim, as Russia uses its permanent position on the UN Security Council to block sanctions enforcement against North Korea. This new alliance gives Kim more leverage, emboldening him to take greater risks, such as testing long-range missiles and challenging South Korea and US allies.

Trump’s return to power could see a more complex geopolitical environment. His position on Russia and its invasion of Ukraine, alongside the support North Korea offers Russia, complicates US efforts to address North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

Critics argue that a lenient approach to Russian aggression may embolden Kim further. Despite these challenges, Trump could still leverage his rapport with Kim, pursuing a diplomatic approach that could involve freezing North Korea’s nuclear development in exchange for sanctions relief and a reduction of US troops in South Korea.

However, scepticism remains about Kim’s willingness to negotiate after the 2019 summit failure. Some experts suggest that Trump might have to revert to military pressure or information warfare to achieve results, as his previous tactics may not work until the geopolitical dynamics around Ukraine evolve.

By Vafa Guliyeva