Trump’s ghost haunts European politics Which direction will the EU take?

At the recent GLOBSEC international security conference in Prague, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the need for European countries to enhance their defense capabilities, even as NATO remains the "centre of our collective defence." She emphasized the central role of Central Europe in developing the "continental defense sector."

Von der Leyen argued that the European Union has failed to take necessary measures to bolster its own weapons production capabilities in response to geopolitical threats, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Noting that this need led to the creation of a new position of EU Commissioner for Defense, von der Leyen made a statement that went viral: "Protecting Europe is first and foremost Europe's duty."

According to some analysts, the position of the European Commission President seems to be shaped by concerns among leading European politicians about the potential victory of Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. This is highlighted by Trump’s comments from a few months ago, where he recalled warning NATO member states during his presidency that Washington had no intention of defending Europeans in the event of a Russian attack if they did not "pay their bills" (referring to their contributions to the alliance): “You didn't pay? You're delinquent?'... 'No I would not protect you, in fact I would encourage them [aggressive countries] to do whatever they want. You gotta pay.”

Indeed, in 2017, when Donald Trump was in the Oval Office, he loudly proclaimed that “Europe needs to do more.” During a rally in New Hampshire in January 2024, Trump even belittled Europeans, emphasizing that after his repeated threats, NATO countries finally started spending “billions and billions of dollars” on collective defense.

Such revelations are unlikely to endear Trump to leading European political figures, especially since he shows no signs of softening his rhetoric towards Europe. Hence, von der Leyen’s statements should come as no surprise. She merely provided a more detailed exposition of what was discussed during recent talks between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The question, however, is how unified the European Union will be regarding the militant policies declared by the EC President. A simple answer to this question can be gleaned from the fact that for 18 years, the capital of the GLOBSEC conference was Bratislava. The official reason for this year's relocation of the forum from Bratislava, where GLOBSEC's headquarters continue to be located, to Prague is cited as the lack of necessary infrastructure, including logistics and insufficient resources for hosting the event. However, from the revelations of GLOBSEC representative Henrieta Kunová, it can be inferred—though not directly—that the decision to move the annual forum was influenced by the Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico's open disdain for non-governmental organizations. There is also a reference to the Slovak government's refusal to pay contributions to GLOBSEC.

It is clear that this fact alone indicates a lack of consensus within the European Union regarding the "military path" advocated by the European Commission President. And if we consider Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's stance on this issue, the situation becomes even more complex. It is no coincidence that in her first major speech after being re-elected as EC President, Ursula von der Leyen sharply criticized the position of the Hungarian Prime Minister, even though she did not mention him by name.

During her speech at the GLOBSEC forum, she remarked that some politicians within the EU are " muddying the waters " in discussions about Ukraine. Emphasizing that "in no language is peace synonymous with surrender. In no language is sovereignty synonymous with occupation," von der Leyen stressed the importance for all allies to reject false narratives that invert the roles of aggressors and defenders.

However, the issue is not limited to Hungary and Slovakia. Many experts also point out nuances in the position of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, as well as the situation in Germany following the recent regional elections in Thuringia and Saxony, which brought significant success to the right-wing "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) and the left-wing "Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance" (BSW), both of which openly advocate for ending Berlin’s military assistance to Kyiv. Local elections are also forthcoming in Brandenburg, where, as in all the eastern German states, these parties have strong support. In this context, observers note the slogan heard in the eastern part of the country: "Peace, Freedom, No War," with some participants in previous rallies holding flags that read "Peace" and "Our Country Above All."

In this context, a pressing question in German analytical circles is: How might the results of regional elections influence Berlin’s foreign policy? Political scientist Carsten Koschmieder argues that while local authorities cannot directly shape foreign policy, they do affect "the overall political climate." He notes that "many observers see the AfD and BSW gaining considerable support. In Eastern Germany, the war in Ukraine is the primary concern."

Thus, the Trump factor has become crucial in shaping how European politicians—whether in power or in opposition—craft their policies. The direction and pace of EU policy decisions will become clearer only once the results of the US presidential election are known.