Trump's success in Ukraine could lead Yerevan back to Moscow Experts weigh in on US-Armenia ties under Trump

One of the most significant foreign policy decisions President Trump made recently was signing a decree suspending U.S. foreign aid for 90 days. The purpose of this pause is to assess the effectiveness of current programs and their alignment with U.S. foreign policy priorities.

How will these developments under President Trump impact Armenia? This is the central question raised by the Yerevan-based publication Verelq. The answer is clear: Armenia, and the South Caucasus region as a whole, do not appear to be a priority for the Trump administration. Trump has repeatedly stated that national interests take precedence, and supporting distant countries is not his focus. While the exact decisions regarding Armenia after the 90-day suspension remain uncertain, the trends are already evident.

The Armenian government has rushed to align itself with the outgoing U.S. administration, effectively burning its bridges with the previous Republican leadership and disregarding potential risks. Now, with a new president in office, the entire value system established by the Democrats has been reset. The Armenian leadership will need to rebuild its relationship with the Republicans. The key question remains: will the Trump team be open to renewing ties, considering they have clear memories of who stood by them and who turned their back?

The most intriguing aspect is that this situation could repeat itself in reverse when a new U.S. president is elected in four years, potentially from the Democratic Party, who may begin dismantling the system established by Trump.

This raises a very logical question: will Armenia be able to preserve the favourable stance Washington extended under Biden during Trump's presidency?

Renowned experts shared their insights on this with Caliber.Az.

Irish political scientist and historian Patrick Walsh notes that Armenia and the South Caucasus are certainly not among President Trump's priorities.

"He has serious issues with overseeing the ceasefire agreement he initiated between Israel and Hamas. An even more serious problem is ending the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration left him a huge mess to clean up, and essentially, he has to manage Ukraine's defeat while minimizing the consequences for himself and the U.S.," said the expert.

According to him, Armenia's pivot to the West should have yielded results in the form of gratitude from Washington and Europe.

"However, the Trump administration is unlikely to respond with benefits for Yerevan, as it is more concerned with the realities of power rather than moral propaganda.

Although it seems that the political character in the U.S. has completely shifted, this may be misleading, and there are likely more enduring changes in the Western landscape than one might expect over a four-year presidential term. The Biden administration left many of Trump's political decisions untouched because they turned out to be functional. This time, however, it appears that a fundamental shift is occurring, with many elements eager to roll back what has been called 'the madness of the last decade.' Trump has seized this opportunity and is leading a revolution or counter-revolution with major technological figures, such as Musk. What I mean is that if Trump does not fail, American Democrats will adapt to the changing political landscape, and the U.S. will be put on a new course, both domestically and in foreign affairs," said the historian.

In his opinion, Armenia will find it difficult to maintain the favourable position it previously held, as Trump has little need for Yerevan and its attempts to win favour with Western propaganda rhetoric, which is unlikely to be sincere.

"He is a stubborn businessman who runs the state like a commercial organization, making profitable deals with financial benefits for the American people. What can Armenia offer him, other than a beggar's bowl? It is much more likely that relations will be restored with Azerbaijan, which can offer Washington much more in terms of geopolitical and financial benefits. Trump is likely to be bad news for Yerevan, especially if he succeeds in resolving the situation in Ukraine, which would then bring the Armenians back to Moscow with their bowl for alms, apologies, and a new reinterpretation of their position," believes Walsh.

Member of the Azerbaijani Milli Majlis (parliament) and political scientist Rasim Musabayov began by stating that Armenia is not a particularly significant country for the United States, so there aren't any major plans regarding it.

"I think Armenian lobbyists, both in Congress, in the State Department, and within Trump's circle, will lobby to ensure that the amount of aid intended for Armenia remains. Overall, as far as I understand, it doesn't even reach $100 million a year. In comparison, tens of billions go to Ukraine, Israel receives 3-4 billion, and a couple of billion goes to Egypt. So, I want to emphasize that there are countries receiving American aid in very large amounts. Armenia, in this regard, holds a rather insignificant position," the expert noted.

He says that as for integration issues, Armenia, under Pashinyan, is focusing its efforts toward the European Union.

"But there are serious problems. First of all, all of Armenia's institutional ties are still linked to Russia. While participation in the CSTO is frozen, Armenia has not yet withdrawn from the bloc. Russian military bases, border guards, and strategic assets have all been handed over to Russia. Armenia and Russia are closely cooperating to circumvent sanctions. Plus, Armenia is still part of the EAEU. So, Armenia has plenty of problems with its European orientation, especially considering that it has no borders with the EU, and given that even Georgia is currently facing sanctions and restrictions from the EU, while Armenia still hasn’t managed to establish diplomatic relations with Türkiye or open its borders," the expert concludes.

I also think that, even if Armenia manages to maintain U.S. financial aid, it is unlikely that it will be able to attract the attention of Trump and his administration to the same extent it could during the Biden administration. Because, from the U.S. perspective, when it comes to the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan is the priority state. As a strategic partner, Azerbaijan ensures Israel's energy security. Our main partners in Europe are Hungary and Italy, and the leaders of these two countries are some of President Donald Trump's closest allies. Relations with Türkiye under Trump are also significantly better, and he highly values Turkish leader Erdogan. All of this works in Azerbaijan's favour. I'm not even mentioning that Iran holds an important place in U.S. foreign policy, and Azerbaijan borders Iran, making it a very significant country in this regard. Without Azerbaijan, no transit to Central Asia is possible. Ultimately, everything comes down to Azerbaijan.

So, I believe that in the context of foreign policy, Azerbaijan will undoubtedly play a much more important role than Armenia, even though Armenia's lobbying capabilities in the U.S. are still better than Azerbaijan's. But the significance of Azerbaijan as a state is incomparable to that of Armenia," concludes Musabayov.