Unpredictable coalition: MPs could cast long shadow over new German chancellor's era

Friedrich Merz began his tenure as Germany’s new chancellor under a cloud of uncertainty, following a surprising setback in his first parliamentary vote. Merz failed to secure the required majority in the Bundestag’s initial secret ballot on May 6, falling six votes short and revealing that 18 members of his governing coalition had defected.

Although he ultimately won the second round, the incident exposed deep cracks in the cohesion of his alliance—made up of his centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) of his predecessor Olaf Scholz—which could seriously undermine his ability to govern effectively.

The coalition holds 328 of the Bundestag’s 630 seats, a narrow majority over the opposition’s 302, where the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) managed to secure the majority of the seats. While this is usually sufficient to pass legislation in Germany’s typically disciplined parliamentary system, an article by Euractiv stresses that alone the fact that just 13 defectors could block any bill makes Merz’s position precarious. 

Historically, German governments with a majority “practically never lose votes,” according to political scientist Ulrich Sieberer, due to high party cohesion and the public nature of most votes. However, the secret ballot for chancellor provided cover for dissent, emboldening those with grievances.

This moment of rebellion could be a sign of simmering internal discontent, according to the article. Though the defectors remain unidentified, speculation suggests a mix of disgruntled SPD lawmakers opposed to Merz’s conservative leadership, CDU youth wing members upset over his support for a large debt package, and MPs passed over for key roles. Merz’s unusual unpopularity for a newly appointed chancellor compounds the threat. The Democratic Left within the SPD, for example, is highly critical of his tough stance on immigration, and several CDU members remain wary of his fiscal policies.

Although open rebellions are rare in the Bundestag, the potential for legislative gridlock looms large. To avoid such outcomes, the article points out that controversial bills may be quietly shelved rather than brought to a vote—a tactic often used during Olaf Scholz’s chancellorship. If Merz encounters the same kind of resistance, particularly on divisive issues like social welfare cuts or increased military spending, his government could become paralysed.

For now, Merz has some room to act without parliamentary approval. His interior minister and close ally, Alexander Dobrindt, has already implemented strict border controls, and decisions like sending long-range missiles to Ukraine remain in the hands of the executive. Major fiscal changes, like relaxing Germany’s debt rules, were settled before Merz took office.

Still, the article warns that looming battles could test his grip on power, such as the upcoming vote on the national budget. Merz’s plans to cut welfare spending could alienate SPD progressives, while rising defence costs might displease conservative fiscal hawks. The budget fight that toppled Scholz’s coalition is a stark reminder of the risks.

Ultimately, Merz's shaky start signals that his slim majority is too vulnerable to support bold reforms without risking internal backlash or legislative stalemate. The message from this week's vote is clear: Merz must tread carefully or risk seeing his coalition—and chancellorship—unravel.

By Nazrin Sadigova