Updating priors: A year that redefined China’s airpower

From stealth fighters to strategic drones, the past twelve months have transformed perceptions of the People’s Liberation Army’s aviation might.

“Updating priors” means revising an existing belief system in the face of new evidence. For those following the modernisation of China’s military, particularly its aviation arms, the last year has offered ample reason to do exactly that.

As The Diplomat writes in its feature, between October 2024 and October 2025, the scale and variety of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force and Navy developments have emerged at a pace that is difficult to contextualiыe — even for seasoned defenсe observers.

Manned сombat aircraft take flight

The year began with milestones in carrier aviation. In October 2024, the PLA Navy’s first dual-carrier exercise featuring Liaoning and Shandong revealed multiple catapult-equipped J-15T fighters, confirming the long-rumored variant’s service entry. Weeks later, the Zhuhai Airshow showcased not just the J-15T but also unveiled the land-based J-35A — a derivative of the carrier-borne fifth-generation J-35 — marking its official debut.

By December 2024, images emerged of two next-generation fighters, the Chengdu J-36 and Shenyang J-XDS. Though unacknowledged by Beijing, experts described them as “next-generation air superiority platforms,” suggesting major steps toward China’s sixth-generation ambitions.

Early 2025 was comparatively quiet until the Pakistan-India conflict in May. The aerial skirmish saw Pakistan’s Chinese-built J-10CE fighters reportedly achieve multiple long-range kills — including against French Rafales — without losses, demonstrating the platform’s combat credibility.

Then came the September 3 Victory Day Parade, where the upgraded J-20A and twin-seat J-20S made their official debut. Neither yet uses the WS-15 engine but both boast significant advances in avionics and materials. The J-35A’s parade appearance confirmed its in-service status, reportedly powered by the WS-19. The carrier-borne J-35, J-15T, and J-15DT also flew, followed by PLA Navy footage of the new Fujian carrier launching them via electromagnetic catapult — the first such feat for a fifth-generation jet at sea.

Unmanned systems ascend

China’s unmanned programs advanced in parallel. At Zhuhai 2024, several new UCAVs and UAVs appeared, hinting at a maturing portfolio. By mid-2025, satellite imagery from Malan Airbase revealed two large stealthy drones: a 52-meter flying wing dubbed WZ-X (reconnaissance) and a 42-meter cranked-kite GJ-X (strike-bomber). Their exposure suggested advanced testing after years of secrecy.

At the September 2025 parade, the carrier-capable GJ-21 — a variant of the GJ-11 — was confirmed in service, alongside four “loyal wingman” UCAVs, marking the first time multiple collaborative combat aircraft were publicly tied to PLA service.

Beyond combat aircraft, December 2024 saw the debut of the KJ-3000 AEW&C, based on the Y-20B transport, whose WS-20 engines finally entered mass production. Rotorcraft innovation also surfaced with tilt-rotor and compound-coaxial demonstrators in August 2025. Meanwhile, a folding-fin PL-15/E missile variant and rumored successor PL-16 underscored China’s continued weapons evolution.

New baseline

The Diplomat notes that this breadth of progress across manned, unmanned, and support platforms is “unprecedented for the modern era.” With fifth-generation fighter production reportedly exceeding 100 aircraft per year, the PLA could field 1,000 such jets by 2030. 

By Sabina Mammadli