US election: Who will American Jews vote for in 2024? Analysis by Artyom Kirpichenok

The US Jewish community is not the country's largest ethnic group, comprising no more than 2.4 per cent of the population, but it has traditionally played an important role in US presidential elections. According to Israeli experts Matthew Silver of the University of Haifa and Hatuel Radushitsky of the Institute for National Security Studies, this is due to the substantial donations that Jewish donors can make to presidential candidates, the significant number of Jews in the US Democratic Party apparatus and Jewish lobbying structures operating in the media. Statistics also show that Jewish voters are twice as likely to vote as the average American. In the US Congress, Jews hold 33 seats, representing 6 per cent of the total number of participants in this legislative assembly.

American Jews have traditionally been seen as liberal and supportive of the Democratic Party. Recent polls show that this trend continues today. According to the Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI), published in mid-November 2023, the breakdown is as follows:

77 per cent of Jewish voters hold a negative view of Donald Trump;

74 per cent of Jewish voters approve of where President Biden stands on Israel-Hamas;

60 per cent of Jewish voters trust Biden more than Trump, and 40 per cent trust Democrats more than Republicans on issues related to the conduct of the war;

43 per cent of Jewish voters vs. 24 per cent trust Democrats more than Republicans to fight anti-Semitism;

77 per cent of American Jews support an aid package for Israel and Ukraine.

Such an unequivocal choice might seem strange to outsiders, for whom the GOP and Donald Trump personally are the most loyal and uncompromised allies of Israel. But Jews in the US feel like Americans, and they vote as Americans, not as Israelis who live across the ocean.

As noted above, the Jewish community has supported Democrats for more than a century. In the 1930s, jokers used to say that "Jews believe in Die Welt ('this world' in Yiddish), Yene Velt ('the hereafter') and Roosevelt". It was Democratic policies that removed the last discriminatory restrictions against Jews and transformed American civilisation from "Christian" to "Judeo-Christian". Only 7 per cent of American Jews cited a presidential candidate's position on Israel as a factor in their choice on election day. The rest are far more concerned about the Republican position on abortion, Donald Trump's attacks on the existing political system and, above all, the issue of anti-Semitism.

At the end of October 2023, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned that the level of anti-Semitism in the United States had reached an unprecedented high. Jews account for 60 per cent of religious hate crime victims in America. Anti-Semitic acts in the US have increased by 400 per cent in recent months, according to the Anti-Defamation League.

Unfortunately for the Republicans, Donald Trump is seen by most US Jews as associated with forces that, while supportive of Israel, seek to limit the influence of the Jewish community in America itself. For example, Trump recently met with Kanye West, a famous rapper with a history of anti-Jewish rhetoric, as well as Nick Fuentes, a prominent white nationalist and Holocaust denier. Avid Republican supporters are evangelical Christians. Their support for Israel is based on their religious beliefs. Evangelicals see the emigration of Jews to the Promised Land as the imminent return of Jesus, but American Jews see the United States as their home and are unwilling to leave their homeland.

The extent to which Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump can reverse current trends and win over American Jews remains to be seen. On 18 September 2023, the eve of the Jewish New Year Rosh Hashanah, he addressed American "liberal Jews" with the words: "I hope you will learn from your mistake and make better choices in the future."

Trump was also adamant that no US leader had done as much for the strengthening of relations with Israel as he had. Jewish audiences found the tone of the speech offensive and full of stereotypes. The liberal Israeli newspaper Haaretz called Trump's congratulatory message "an ominous warning to American Jews", while the Israeli non-profit Tel Aviv University Anti-Semitism Association stressed that Trump's remarks "strengthen anti-Semitic sentiment in America".

Despite having overwhelmingly supported the Democratic Party, the US Jewish community does not represent a unified whole. And there are staunch Republican supporters among American Jews. These include, first and foremost, communities of Orthodox Jews who, even in the 21st century, continue to live the lifestyle of the Eastern European townships of the previous century. They wear the traditional black robes and observe the dictates of Judaism in all matters of daily life. For these people, conservative Republicans who appeal to faith and traditional values are much closer than Democrats who call for widespread tolerance. For example, the Republican governor of Florida, Ron Desantis, won re-election in 2019 with the support of Orthodox Jewish votes. A 2020 survey by PEW shows that 75 per cent of Orthodox Jews hold Republican views. The recent coronavirus epidemic, which killed many traditional Jews, has also increased Republican sympathies among the Orthodox over the past three years. Religious people not only rebuked the Biden administration for what they saw as incompetent decisions but also saw it as God's punishment for the Democrats' policies of "tolerance" and "permissiveness".

Another potential Trump voter will be Jews who have recently immigrated to the United States from other countries: France, Israel and the former Soviet Union. The Jews of these countries are known for their extreme right-wing views, and the rhetoric of Donald Trump, who manages to find "communists" even in the US Congress, is close to their hearts. As one such immigrant noted in an interview with Jewish.ru: "... The Democratic Party was conservative, now it has become socialist. If I have to choose between more social security and more freedom, I will choose more freedom. Freedom of the individual, entrepreneurship and everything else. So I am with Trump".

A small group of voters whose support was lost by Joe Biden but not gained by Donald Trump stands somewhat apart. These are radical Jewish youth who are disappointed with the hardline Middle East policies of the current occupant of the White House. Only 53 per cent of young Jews between the ages of 18 and 35 approve of Joe Biden's stance on the issue. This is not the most active group when it comes to voting, but it is striking when it comes to the media. In addition, young people are useful in campaigning on the streets during election days.

The American Jewish Journal summarises, "The 46th president [Joe Biden - AJ] has a startlingly low approval rating, down to 30 per cent. His support among blacks and Latinos considered the core of his electoral support just two years ago, is approaching dangerously low numbers. The young people who stood by him and put him in the White House have abandoned him. But American Jews are standing by the president".

Whether the support of American Jews will be enough to secure the re-election of the incumbent, Democrat Joe Biden, for another term will be seen in the coming year, when much is likely to happen both in the Middle East and in the US.